Where are you getting this estimate? Just curious because I rarely see an estimate of the size of the UP deer herd.
The only estimate I've seen in recent years is Ozoga's estimate of 250,000. I don't know if that is a pre or post fawn drop number.
Google search says the deer herd in U.P peaked at 700,000 in early mid-1990s. Cork Dust's post said 800,000 peak. For the 10 year period covering 2014-2023 the average deer harvest in the U.P. was 28,961, using the DNR's annual harvest survey reports. In 2022, UP hunters self reported 22,784 kills. In 2023, hunters self reported 16,833 kills. In 2024, hunters reported 21,222.
It seems that if deer numbers were 275,000 last fall, hunters would kill more than 10% (mostly bucks) of the herd, Wolves would have to really eat a lot of deer to keep a population of 275,000 from expanding significantly if hunters are only killing 29,000 deer a year, with most being bucks. I guess another harsh winter will push the numbers down again.
In 2000, the U.P deer harvest estimate was 75,000. I wonder what the U.P. deer population estimate was that year.
I had an interesting conversation with John Ozoga in the year immediately after those two severe winters prior 2000. I had stopped at his home in Munising to get some copies of one of his books signed to give as Christmas gifts. I am using his estimate of peak deer herd popuation in Region 1, prior those two killer winters.
Very bad science to compare the deer kill estimates dirived previous the switch to direct reporting with direct reporting kill values; two different techniques with dissimilar error terms and accuracy values inherent to how the kill estimates are derived. Example: Per Chad's statiscian's assessment, deer kill under the direct reporting format now used under-reports actual kill by anywhre from 5-15%, specific to management Region and DMU level values variation. Oddly, there are pockets within the state where hunters willingly under report the kill...for a variety of reasons, per their data.
I got into an interesting exchange with a Region 1 Wildlife Division manager at the last U.P. Habitat Work Group held immediately prior the onset of the DMI meetings cascade. I asked a question regardng updating efforts to determine whitetail seaonal movement patterns to specific to populating deer makeup in specific large acreage WDCs. He informed me that that work was already 'accomplished' via a large collar tagging effort conducted decades ago. I responded by aksing him why he thought that deer migration occurred at the same rate, from the same natal territories when many of these northern latitiud habitats were largely depopulated or, at minimum heavily reduced in deer density by the same higher onset frequency of severe and lengthy winters that were just discussed? He turned very red...and then stalked me out into the parking lot after the meeting to tell me I was being disruptive... Yes, I am putting what he actually said in milder terms. He is also the guy that fails to direct any follow-up to determine whether large habitat improvement projects the Wildlife Division farm-out to sportsman's groups to accomplish the field work on ever get field truthed with regard to whether they actually get R.O.I. at decent rates. Oddly, all habitat improvements are not equal...
The winter of 2023-24 is now referred to as the winter that wasn't by biologists. It had a marked beneficial effect of whitetail deer numbers, borth via survival of bucks and does, as well as the consequent benefits on fawn numbers. This year I have only seen one doe with only one fawn. Lots of twins walking around with their mothers.
The gun deer season kill largely in Region 1 occurs over the first 5-6 days of the season. Weather during ths period plays a very crucial role in keeping hunters in the woods and fields, thus impacting kill statistc values. Sorry, not much on calling it harvest when its not. Fall of 2023 I was tent hunting in Alger Co. along the Indian River. I had found sign of a nice buck while hunting wood ducks on a remote oxbow along the river I found years ago while fishing trout out of my canoe. I never saw a deer for the first four days of the gun deer season. I was that warm. Great tent camping weather, just bad deer movement weather. The weather eventually broke and deer movement and rutting activity increased.
Much of what the U.P. Habitat Work Group actually accomplished by way of habitat improvements has occurred on private land owner parcels and in the Ottowas Forest along with some grudging efforts by the DNR Forestry/Wildlife Divisions. Hard to ignore WDCs when you have a map of their locations and a complete menu item management plan for each of them I would still like to see a Deer Management Plan that actually fully incoporates habitat improvements and stabilzation of state owned lands by DMU, though. Maybe Chad is reading this... He is a bright guy. He just needs to light a fire under a couple of folks butts who still hold the business as usual attitude in his division that direct efforts up here.
Actually, the U.P. deer population was well over 800,000 deer when the winter of 1995-96 hit the herd. Yes, winter does have a more marked impact on deer numbers and, yes, deer numbers rebound after one or more mild-winters despite the suite of predators that exist in the U.P. You opt to ignore the potential benefits of broad DMU closure of doe tag issuance as well as the declines in hunter numbers. When you cite buck kill statistics per year as a comparator of the background population, hunter numbers and effort should be a constant or factored-in. Buck kill is pretty crude statistic otherwise; it's best appiied as a reference to broadly gauge winter severity impacts.
If you recall, John's current deer population estimate was made during the immediate interval when the NRC was discussing closing some or all of the deer hunting seaons down in Region 1.
mikeaveryoutdoors.com
