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Sighting Ratio - 1.5 vs. 2.5+

1.7K views 22 replies 16 participants last post by  Jeff Sturgis  
#1 ·
Another thread got me thinking. It is probable, I think, that buck age structure, though overall likely poorer here than in most states, is a bit variable across Michigan. One member postulated that half of the antlered bucks in Michigan are 2.5 years old or older, and I thought that sounded unrealistic in the extreme. jkhillsdale remarked that his opinion is similar to my own.

I went back and checked the logs of my hunts for the past 10 seasons. Based on hunting season observations, over that period, I have seen roughly between seven and eight 1.5 year old bucks for every buck I've seen that was 2.5 years old or older. Put another way, if I see 21 different bucks in a season, 17-18 of 'em will be 1.5 years old.

Now, I understand this is a "sighting" ratio, which would differ from a real census, as older bucks tend to be less visible. Also, field-judging is imprecise, though differentiating between a yearling buck and one that is 2.5 years old or older is generally a breeze. Still, even allowing for these things, I have a tough time believing that yearling bucks do not comprise a bare minimum of 75% of antlered bucks in my area, and likely, a higher proportion than that.

Now, I've also spent a fair amount of time at a high-volume processor in the area, and have also volunteered at check stations in the southern lower a few times, and my observations there have mirrored what I've seen on my farm. Similarly, that would represent a "harvest" ratio, in which yearling bucks would likely be over-represented.

In my hunting area, there simply aren't too many yearling bucks that survive their first hunting season.

Of the antlered bucks in your hunting area, what proportion do you believe are yearlings?
 
#2 ·
I believe it's in the neighborhood of 5 out of every 6 antlered bucks in S. MI are 1.5 year olds.

The previous two seasons I've had about 40 buck sightings while hunting roughly 200 hours each season. Each of the past two seasons I've seen four different bucks that I'm confident were older than 1.5. By attempting to then factor out the 1.5 year old sightings that were duplicates (in some cases I've seen the same 1.5 year old as many as four time different times in one season, and it's very common to see the same 1.5 year old at least twice) it seems to be pretty close to 5 out of every 6. Maybe even as high as 6 out of 7. This is also pretty consistent with what I see at night with a spotlight and with trail cameras as well.
 
#3 ·
6 antlered bucks behind the house this year, one 3.5, one 2.5 and four 1.5. Of course, I start scouting in May and watch them as their antlers grow. After mid August, buck surveys get more difficult, imo. When they're still in their bachelor groups, it much easier to age them.

My question to you farmlegend, is what do you think happens to those 1.5 year olds from season to season? Do you think the neighbors harvest a lot of them? Do you think the leave the area? I know they're protected on your land, so what happens to all those 1.5 year olds? I'm only asking because this seems to be a mystery with many people, 1.5 year olds are the easiest to see.
 
#4 ·
jk hilsdale you aren't shinning the right spots ;)

Off the top of my head (it's easy to get stuff there 'cause there's no hair) I'd say 2/3 of the bucks I see are 1 1/2 years old.


This year is a little askew, I've seen 13 bucks and maybe two are 2 1/2 but the older ones will start coming out of the swamps earlier in the day, real soon :D
and that will change numbers significantly.

My doe sighting are way down this year compared to most, around 20. I see them every time out but I know most are repeats.
 
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#5 ·
This year alone, know granted we do not have the pure numbers some others have in SLP, but I shot/killed a 2.5 year plus(some say 2.5 others 3.5), I have seen on camera a 3.5 year old plus along with another 2.5 year old for sure and 2 other 1.5 year olds. i have seen no more than twice as many does on film too. And I know of 2 more 3.5 year olds plus deer in my hunting area thats others have seen but not me...yet!!. And a couple 2.5 year olds. I have 4 areas I hunt ranging from 10 acres to 120 acres(stateland that is vast but I just cover a certain area).
 
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#6 ·
Sib said:
My question to you farmlegend, is what do you think happens to those 1.5 year olds from season to season? Do you think the neighbors harvest a lot of them?
Overwhelmingly, they get killed by hunters that hunt neighboring parcels. Generally, my neighboring landowners do not hunt, and give permission to a wide assortment of individuals. A couple of these landowners could not name all the fellas they've given permission to.
 
#7 ·
I shot a 1 1/2 yr old 7 point Saturday morning and am damn proud of it. I get VERY few chances at 1 1/2 old bucks where I hunt let alone any older ones. I did have a nice area that I hunted that was sold that I shot a beautiful 4 1/2 yr old 9 point that's on the wall. But, that is gone and I have to hunt like most of the rest of the state now :)
 
#8 ·
farmlegend said:
.
Of the antlered bucks in your hunting area, what proportion do you believe are yearlings?
60% and shrinking!:D
But that's for a good reason and that reason is we have been "managing" for better age structure and buck/doe ratios.:D
Amazing how the neighbors don't seem to be whining about not shooting a buck every year and how everyone seems to have plenty of venison in their freezers.
 
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#9 ·
doogster said:
Mich Buckmaster - you have killed MANY great bucks and posted the stories and pictures on this website. We ALL thank you for that.

But seriously, you've never even thought just a little bit about FL always "talking the talk" as you put it and never producing????!!! :evil:

I shot a 1 1/2 yr old 7 point Saturday morning and am damn proud of it. I get VERY few chances at 1 1/2 old bucks where I hunt let alone any older ones. I did have a nice area that I hunted that was sold that I shot a beautiful 4 1/2 yr old 9 point that's on the wall. But, that is gone and I have to hunt like most of the rest of the state now :)
Just having a little fun with my buddy Farmlegend, I learn a lot from his posts and was just having fun. If people think I was flaming, they definately dont know my character. AS for that I notice my post is gone, OH WELL!!!!!!!!!



NOTE: MB I deleted - it was a statment about knowing your character or flaming anyone - just tyring to keep this on topic - I think it's a great subject and good question - I don't want it to morph out into something it wasn't inteded to be - thanks ferg....
 
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#10 ·
Just for some perspective on this....

With my cameras over the course of late summer through fall and into early winter I get a very good handle on what bucks are in the area. During hunting I typically will see approximately 75% of all yearling bucks, but only 25% of all 2.5 year old and older bucks.

I absolutely do not agree that there are as many older bucks, as younger in MI unless those properties are managed for QDM, but say you see 1 2.5 year old for every 8 yearlings, the ratio might be a little better than 1:8...but certainly still skewed.

I can remember back in the thumb when in just one year I passed on 14 different yearling bucks, at one point over 20 sits in a row passing on at least 1 yearling buck with a bow, but that entire season I only saw 3 2.5 year old bucks or older. Not saying there were only 3 compared to 14...but the ratio was heavily skewed towards yearlings. We would also sit and watch bachelor groups and deer the entire summer and it was common to see 14 bucks in a field, with only 1-2, 2.5 or older. Again, that was probably not the real ratio..but it was no 50:50.
 
#11 ·
My observations represent three seperate locations (this by itself shows how different everyones situation is), one in Eaton county and two in Barry. These observations are from the past four years and from the three of us that share rights to these places. These are observations from stand. Also only account for different bucks. Not the same buck seen several times.

1) Eaton - We have seen from 8 - 14 different bucks here each year. Only one 2.5 in that time. Total equals 1:43. This is a 120 acre piece that is bordered by extreme hunting pressure. All great people that have large hunting parties. Late season baiting and several organized drives. Camera surveys and shining are consistent with stand observations.

2) Barry 1 - We have seen from 4 - 7 different bucks. Four 2.5 or older. Total equals 4:23. This property is a large farm (400+acres) comprised of large farm fields and small wood lots. It has proved very difficult to hunt. Getting to the woods before daylight w/o spooking deer from fields in the morning and getting to the woods w/o spooking deer from their beds in the evening. Two sides have heavy hunting pressure while two are fairly light with large acres of hardwoods and lowlands. Camera surveys and shining show more mature bucks (and immature) than what we observe from stand (not recorded but a similar ratio).

3) Barry 2 - Only two years on this property. Year 1, 5:16. Year 2, 7:15. Only one of these older bucks we guessed at 3.5 (the rest 2.5). This is a 42 acre parcel that is in the core of a 1400 acre QDM Co-op. This Co-op is 3 years old in an area with high deer density. Shining and camera survey actually sugessted a higher ratio of mature bucks but where that gets contradicted is the observations. We photo'd fewer 1.5 bucks than we observed. We observed all but one of the 2.5+ bucks.

Inconclusive? Yes. I think it shows how different each situation and property is. I am Pro-QDM so possibly biased, but I believe it does show the advantages provided by our neighborhood Co-op.
 
#12 ·
On my property in Leelanau County the buck age ratio is currently 50% 2.5 year olds and 50% 1.5 year olds based on Deer Cam pictures taken since April of this year.

I think as more and more people start to put out Deer cams a better idea of the true number of bucks on a given property will emerge. Last year during hunting season on my property I did not see any bucks at all, but there is a reasonable chance that some of the current 2.5 yer olds where there last year as 1.5 year olds, so sightings while hunting do not give a very accurate picture of the overall buck population. Harvest statistics will inevitibly be skewed towards over-representing younger bucks. If a buck gets to 2.5 he gets that much harder to kill and that much more invisible. The reclusive nature of larger bucks probably increases exponentially with every year they survive.
 
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#13 ·
One of the things that I don't see posted is the effect of poaching on buck numbers. I ask just about every CO that I talk to the same question. How does the illegal kill compare to the legal kill? They're answer used to be "that the illegal kill nearly equaled the legal kill" now that penalties are higher I've been told that "the illegal kill is about half of the legal kill". If Boehr is reading I'm sure he could share his unofficial estimate of poaching based of his field experience.

Ask your local CO the same question and I'm sure you'll find that the illegal kill is high and that many older bucks are taken by poaching.

As far as my eastern UP sightings go, I would say that 65% of the antlered bucks I see are 1.5 year olds, 25% are 2.5 year olds and 10% are older. This is in an Ag area with little to no bow hunting pressure.
 
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#15 ·
Again, you guys are judging these deer on the hoof, not by actually shooting them and ageing them.

Last year we shot about 50/50 bucks that were 1.5 or 2.5+.

Mod Note: here was the orignal question:

"Of the antlered bucks in your hunting area, what proportion do you believe are yearlings?"

Poz - I left the portion of this post that seems to be on topic - thanks
 
#16 ·
The differences between a 1.5 year old buck and 3.5 year old buck are astonishing, you know when you have seen a 3.5 year or older buck. You don't have to yank out a jaw bone to confirm it.

This goes back to the arguement that 3/4 of MI hunter's have never seen a mature buck. They see a nice 2.5 year old and fall all over themselves, swearing they saw 'Muy Grande'.

That says a lot about of the state of affairs with MI's deer herd.
 
#17 ·
You can be a better "on the hoof" judge of 1.5,2.5, and 3.5 year old bucks than probably your local CO's.

Those 3 age classes are EXTREMELY easy to tell the differances with because the changes between ages are drastic and very conclusive....but like Swamp was talking about, most go a lifetime without seeing a 2.5 year old so most wouldn't have a clue.

Again though, drastic, drastic changes between those ages. I can see someone confusing a 3.5 with a 4.5...but not those first 3 years if you have any experience whatsoever.
 
#18 ·
Maybe.....a 3.5 year old around Roscommon has the same size and antler mass and looks as alot of 2.5 year olds from jackson co.

Just as a 1.5 year old Jackson co. buck has the same body/anlter similiarites as a 2.5 year old Crawford co. jackpine buck.

Its easy to guess the age of the bucks IF you know what region they came from.
 
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#20 ·
Also it's easy to guess the age when they are in bachelor groups in the summer,and you can compare them to each other, but when a deer is walking throught the woods at 50 yards alone, not many people can tell what it's age is. you might have 2 bucks that are both 1.5 yr.olds. and one of them has his neck already swollen and ready for the rut, and the other one hasn't done this yet and most people will say one is 1.5 and the other 2.5

Also must hunters can't tell the difference between a BB and a doe, Yet you guys are saying they can tell the age of a deer. Like I said before, some guys are great at it, but the majority are not.
 
#22 ·
Sib, your right. They speak with half truth or no truth at all. I can tell you that everyone of my hunting friends has seen a 3.5 year old deer while hunting. When they speak like this, they are just trying to push their agenda. Throwing out percentages like they are real facts....at some point they actually starting believing they read it somewhere(just gotta find that article!?!!?) and it becomes truth to them.

Oh boy...this quote says it all.....""""....but like Swamp was talking about, most go a lifetime without seeing a 2.5 year old so most wouldn't have a clue.""""" ooooohhhh holy ones....how do we see this 2.5 year old you talk about with such wisdom?!?!?

sorry ferg..was typing when you posted...
 
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#23 ·
B&N,

Everything is relative though...for example where I hunt in PA is similar in the 1.5 and 2.5 year old bucks..but the U.P. is much better at 3.5 years of age. In the WI farmland the buck ages are very close to the thumb, southern lower, and other ag areas in MI including even some farmland areas in the U.P. Also, for the first 2-3 years the U.P. is simlar to PA, but also TX. The U.P. is also similar to areas of Vermont, northern Main and also northern lower.

Basically, in the majority of the country there are primarily two types of growth rates that cover the vast majority of the whitetail range.

#1 could include northern lower MI, the U.P., public land PA, Vermont, Maine and anywhere else growth is slow, winter or summer severity may be harsh, and habitat is less than desireable.

#2 most ag areas..could be SW WI, IA, KY to SE OH, even the "blackbelt" region of AL.

You just have to have a little experience, get a rough idea of where you are hunting...which most should with just a very little research or conversation, and you can make a high degree of accuracy "guestimate" for those first 3 years. Seeing how past studies have shown State Game departments to be wrong between 25 and 50% of the time when estimating age by jaw, I don't think it's unreasonable to think you can do a better job yourself by aging on the hoof than most get when they take their deer to a check station.

Anyways though, it's all relative and as I travel to the thumb area in the next few days to hunt with good friend Perry Russo and his family/friends, I'll be after at least a 3.5 year old buck and you can never say never...but if I can't tell the differance I shouldn't be getting in a tree on his property is the way I look at it.
 
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