Guys...it's here, it's now...we are already in the beginning of the rut! Here is an article that I wrote as a guide for how to analyze the various weather-related triggers during the rut: http://www.whitetailhabitatsolutions.com/blog/whitetail-rut-weather-guide/
And if you don't feel like reading the entire article, here are some of the main points....
1. The first calm and cold sits following the front are the best. Even if the temperatures stay the same or slightly decrease, the new set of temps eventually becomes the new, "boring and predictable" weather pattern. The front and temp drop combine to create the trigger, so the first day after the front offers the highest value sit. The 2nd day is worth less, the 3rd day a lot less and I don't believe the 4th day is even impacted.
2. The forecasted "Lo" for a day, is actually the predicted temperature for the next day's morning Lo, and not the date that was listed. For example, in the forcast that I included, the Lo of 31 for the 30th, will actually be the morning temperature for the 31st.
3. Change is a good thing! Any forecasted change is good to take notice of, and that also includes from morning to morning, and not just daytime high to daytime high. There are often periods of major stability, and example of daytime highs could be 58, 57, 55, 59 and 57. It may appear that there is not enough of a change in the forecast to allow you to prioritize a day. However...take a look at the morning lows too! If a cloudy, minor front comes through the air will be insulated and the temps will not drop as low during the night. The forecast could read something like 33, 35, 35, 44, 33...even though though the daytime highs are relatively the same. However a forecast like that would dictate that you should hunt the 33 degree morning, following a drop of 11 degrees from the morning before.
4. It's all relative. What that means is that although a 55 to 40 degree temp drop is great, it isn't that much better than a 65 to 50 degree temp drop, because both days feature a major weather change, as indicated by the 15 degree temp drop for both days.
5. The extremity of the front plays a major role in the quality of the sits that follow. The higher the winds and the more unstable the front (including rainfall, ice and snow), the better the calm and cold days are that follow.
6. Wind speed is relative too! A drop in wind speed from 25mph sustained winds to 10 mph is great drop...just like dropping from 17 to 2. The 17 to 2 may be worth more, but it's not worth that much more.
I can't wait to bowhunt in both OH and WI this year! The cool thing is that the weather in OH follows the weather in WI a day or 2 behind. So, by traveling back and forth between the 2 states I can come up with my own whitetail rut weather forecast to maximize my opportunities over the course of an entire 2 weeks. I hope that you can come up with similar plan to maximize the success in your own trips to a treestand. Finding success may just may be a lot more definitive than you think, by letting the weather be your guide.
I like your king weekend idea...spreads out your opportunity and risk. Also, lots of time a mature buck may be in area for a few days and move on....you get a better sampling of potential bucks by separating your hunting days...
