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The CDC seems to think they spread in a similar way...
They spread in almost the exact same way - but at much lower RATES of spread.

The average case of flu infects ~1 other person. Currently it looks like COVID is about 5 to 7.
 

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They spread in almost the exact same way - but at much lower RATES of spread.

The average case of flu infects ~1 other person. Currently it looks like COVID is about 5 to 7.
So does that imply spikes in covid will have a corresponding spike in flu, with the difference being magnitude (one very noticeable and the other minuscule)?
 

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On a positive note, based on the preliminary data posted by the MI Dept of Health & Human Services, two of the biggest killers in Michigan improved this year:

Cancer deaths were down in 2020 by nearly 5% from 2019… this, after being on a consistent gradual rise dating all the way back to 2000. Marking the single greatest improvement year-over-year in the last 2 decades.

Deaths attributed to Heart Disease were also down…. nearly 2.5% from 2019, after continuing to consistently rise since 2009 when coding changes were made. Previous data cannot readily be compared.


Really makes you wonder… either a few months of eating healthier and smoking less at home was enough to undo a lifetime worth of previous choices for lots of people… or is something else in play here?
 

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So does that imply spikes in covid will have a corresponding spike in flu, with the difference being magnitude (one very noticeable and the other minuscule)?
Absent any intervention, yes.

...but it's quite possible that with vaccines, masks, and social distancing we've driven that R to below 1. Some flu years/strains already had an R below 1 absent all that stuff... so there may be no significant flu spike at all.
 

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On a positive note, based on the preliminary data posted by the MI Dept of Health & Human Services, two of the biggest killers in Michigan improved this year:

Cancer deaths were down in 2020 by nearly 5% from 2019… this, after being on a consistent gradual rise dating all the way back to 2000. Marking the single greatest improvement year-over-year in the last 2 decades.

Deaths attributed to Heart Disease were also down…. nearly 2.5% from 2019, after continuing to consistently rise since 2009 when coding changes were made. Previous data cannot readily be compared.


Really makes you wonder… either a few months of eating healthier and smoking less at home was enough to undo a lifetime worth of previous choices for lots of people… or is something else in play here?
It is reasonable to believe "some" covid deaths occurred in people with cancer, but having cancer wasn't the actual cause of death.
 

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Absent any intervention, yes.

...but it's quite possible that with vaccines, masks, and social distancing we've driven that R to below 1. Some flu years/strains already had an R below 1 absent all that stuff... so there may be no significant flu spike at all.
Thats kind of what I'm getting at. With covid a spike may be significant. With flu and a low R value, it may be miniscule/ negligible.
 

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It is reasonable to believe "some" covid deaths occurred in people with cancer, but having cancer wasn't the actual cause of death.
Exactly… but that also means that a significant number of the individuals that passed, would have passed from one of these two sources regardless of whether COVID ever existed or not. It isn’t any less sad, so don’t get me wrong, because that isn’t at all what I’m saying…. I just feel that the data is showing what a lot of people believe… and that’s that there’s been too much incentive for deaths to be coded one way versus the other.

Cancer deaths have increased an average of 0.3% year-over-year for the last 20 years. This year they declined by 5%. So, without covid, we could have reasonably expected a 5.3% difference in the number of cancer-related deaths in 2020…. Or about 1,337 individuals.

Applying the same logic to Heart Disease, which has steadily risen by about 1% year-over-year since 2009, we could have expected about 3.5% more deaths… or another 837 souls.


Either that… or home cooking is just that much better.
 

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Exactly… but that also means that a significant number of the individuals that passed, would have passed from one of these two sources regardless of whether COVID ever existed or not. It isn’t any less sad, so don’t get me wrong, because that isn’t at all what I’m saying…. I just feel that the data is showing what a lot of people believe… and that’s that there’s been too much incentive for deaths to be coded one way versus the other.

Cancer deaths have increased an average of 0.3% year-over-year for the last 20 years. This year they declined by 5%. So, without covid, we could have reasonably expected a 5.3% difference in the number of cancer-related deaths in 2020…. Or about 1,337 individuals.

Applying the same logic to Heart Disease, which has steadily risen by about 1% year-over-year since 2009, we could have expected about 3.5% more deaths… or another 837 souls.


Either that… or home cooking is just that much better.
Sure... so by that logic around 2,000 covid deaths could have been otherwise attributed to cancer or heart disease. Makes zero difference in the scheme of things, IMO.

Why wouldn't deaths be assigned as the case indicated? Are you saying if the person had covid and died of heart failure or had cancer, covid didn’t push them over the edge causing death sooner than otherwise would have?

I see your point but I think it is only reasonable to think that way in an attempt to minimize covid impact.
 

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Covid has been one of the most controversial subjects of all time on these pages. Millions of words have been typed on the subject over the past year, with multiple disagreements relative to prevention, masking, treatments, vaccines etc. We will likely never see a more polarizing subject in our entire lifetimes.

That said, and setting aside all of our differences of opinion, I think we can all agree that the most devastating effect of the pandemic has been the shutdowns of Chinese buffets nationwide. I miss concerts, I miss sporting events, I miss actually seeing people's faces, I miss having meetings in person whereby I can read the room for non-verbal cues.

But what I miss most of all - is unlimited portions of hot and sour soup, and General Tso's chicken.
I agree with you 100%.
 

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Thats kind of what I'm getting at. With covid a spike may be significant. With flu and a low R value, it may be miniscule/ negligible.
I just had a very light cold I would call it. How I got it is really baffling. Don't really go anywhere, maybe grocery store once a week or take out once a week. (mask on). I think wife has it now to a small degree.
My symptoms were a slight blockage in my upper sinus. No drainage from the nose and no cough. Decongestant cleared it right up.

Maybe got it that one day I went outside with a wet head. I was always told not to go outside with wet head as you could catch a cold. :)
 

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I just had a very light cold I would call it. How I got it is really baffling. Don't really go anywhere, maybe grocery store once a week or take out once a week. (mask on). I think wife has it now to a small degree.
My symptoms were a slight blockage in my upper sinus. No drainage from the nose and no cough. Decongestant cleared it right up.

Maybe got it that one day I went outside with a wet head. I was always told not to go outside with wet head as you could catch a cold. :)
Or maybe it was a slight allergy?
 

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Sure... so by that logic around 2,000 covid deaths could have been otherwise attributed to cancer or heart disease. Makes zero difference in the scheme of things, IMO.

Why wouldn't deaths be assigned as the case indicated? Are you saying if the person had covid and died of heart failure or had cancer, covid didn’t push them over the edge causing death sooner than otherwise would have?

I see your point but I think it is only reasonable to think that way in an attempt to minimize covid impact.

Not trying to minimize anything… just feel it’s worth accurately defining the impacts.

There’s no getting around the fact that the effects of The Vid are large, but there’s also no need to inflate those numbers or to avoid placing them in proper context.

I think it would be prudent to boil the actual number down to an accurate number of deaths. And then, in the context of restaurants being open vs closed, consider that the best available estimates only place them at fault 4% of the time. So making a rather gross assumption, we could "blame" them for 4% of the total cases... or +/- 25,000 cases statewide if we use their current total.

Of that total, we could then assess that if the 70+ crowd listened to their doctors and stayed home (the age group that comprises 10,176 of the 13,824 deaths to-date)… only 0.6% would perish. Or about 150 people statewide over the course of the entire year. Sure, 150 isn’t a great number, but is 0.41 deaths/day enough to justify the current action when other, more reasonable approaches exist?
 

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Exactly… but that also means that a significant number of the individuals that passed, would have passed from one of these two sources regardless of whether COVID ever existed or not.
...but not necessarily at the same time.

I mean - if you have cancer, and you get run over by a car... it's an auto accident death, not a cancer death.

Doesn't matter if that lowers cancer death numbers. It's still an auto accident death.
 

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Not trying to minimize anything… just feel it’s worth accurately defining the impacts.

There’s no getting around the fact that the effects of The Vid are large, but there’s also no need to inflate those numbers or to avoid placing them in proper context.

I think it would be prudent to boil the actual number down to an accurate number of deaths. And then, in the context of restaurants being open vs closed, consider that the best available estimates only place them at fault 4% of the time. So making a rather gross assumption, we could "blame" them for 4% of the total cases... or +/- 25,000 cases statewide if we use their current total.

Of that total, we could then assess that if the 70+ crowd listened to their doctors and stayed home (the age group that comprises 10,176 of the 13,824 deaths to-date)… only 0.6% would perish. Or about 150 people statewide over the course of the entire year. Sure, 150 isn’t a great number, but is 0.41 deaths/day enough to justify the current action when other, more reasonable approaches exist?
Accuracy is important, no doubt. Im just saying 2,000 out of 400,000 or 0.5% is not significant enough "error" to worry about, IMO. It is accurate enough. I cant imagine it being 100% accurate, ever. Its not black and white like someone getting run over by a bus.

The restaurant thing is tricky. IF it is a significant source of transmission, it is basically "nucleation point" for larger outbreak. And it's not a necessity like grocery shopping. Nor are they mandated to close.
 

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Don't have allergies, never have. Wife has sniffles right now and she has no allergies either
All is well right now.
My air drier furnace combined with dust and dog dander give me morning symptoms of sinus issues.
Time to change the filter again...
I'll bump humidity up again if run times of furnace make it much drier.
 
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Really makes you wonder… either a few months of eating healthier and smoking less at home was enough to undo a lifetime worth of previous choices for lots of people… or is something else in play here?
Nothing much to wonder about really. Most restaurant food is unhealthy. High in calories, fats, and salt. Most of it is packaged, canned, or frozen. Little of it is made from scratch.
I don’t don’t eat at restaurants that advertise “home cooked meals”. I get that at home.
 
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