Rumors are rumors. That said, there’s several rumors that seem to be reoccurring, so take that for what it’s worth.
One rumor I’m hearing is that the old July deadline isn’t an issue this time around, because they are looking at really taking their time with changes and those changes won’t take effect until 2019. Hence hiring a PR firm to soft land changes and to educate the public of changes, along with giving many months of advance notice.
Odds: I’d say the odds are pretty good that major changes will come in 2019. 80% chance.
Rumor has it that they want to create a large CWD zone. Basically, any county that borders a CWD county would be part of the new CWD zone. The reason is that testing compliance from hunters is much better in disease zones than outside of disease zones. A possible county list is as follows-
Allegan, Ottawa, Muskegon, Newaygo, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Isabella, Mecosta, Kent, Montcalm, Barry, Ionia, Gratiot, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Jackson, Livingston, Shiawassee and Saginaw.
Odds: I think the odds of this happening are 60-80%.
There’s the rumor that they may do a test program of requiring electronic reporting in the CWD zone and also a POS survey asking hunters if they plan on hunting the CWD zone. Both would be matched up against Harvest Survey Report data to get the best sense of how many hunters are still hunting the zone and exactly what they are killing, where and when.
Odds: Dependent on the CWD zone being established.
Another rumor is that they are mulling 4 options for baiting. One is a statewide ban, #2 is a LP only ban, #3 is allowing shelled corn only everywhere but the TB and CWD zone and #4 is allowing shelled corn only statewide, to make simple uniform rules. The only thing I’m not hearing is keeping the current rules we have. The reasoning behind potentially allowing shelled corn is two fold. First, corn isn’t as big of a disease concern because it’s not a multiple bite bait, like beets or carrots. Second, there is a real concern that some hunters will stop hunting, others won’t see many deer because they have never hunted without bait and not enough deer will be killed.
Odds: I’d say the odds are 50/50 that shelled corn only will be allowed somewhere. While the major special interests seem lined up behind a ban, the Arkansas DNR kept corn legal due the concerns listed above. While the Arkansas law doesn’t stipulate corn only, in practice, the ADNR says nearly 100% of the baiting there involves shelled corn or pellets at feeders. I think MDNR would just assume keep limited baiting, limited to shelled corn only.
As far as APR’s, MDNR seems open to the possibility of some form of expansion, but only if it can be proven that we’d get positive benefits from such a change. Despite promise, the NW13 doesn’t seem to show much more than buck age class increased by one year. Antlerless harvest increased, but mainly because of increased antlerless tags. The percentage of increase wasn’t any better in the NW13, when compared to non-APR NLP area’s with increased quotas. Basically, at least in the NLP, if you increase antlerless quotas, for the first couple years antlerless harvest will increase, APR’s or not, then hunters will self regulate as herd numbers are decreased to a certain point, no matter how high the quotas.
But that said, the rumor is that if APR’s can be a tool to drive sales to the combo tag or to achieve harvest ratios like Pennsylvania, then MDNR is open to researching it.
The NRC, on the other hand, appears to have 4 votes locked in opposition to any expansion, so the selling point to sway the NRC would have to achieve several important factors. APR’s would have to keep license revenue on par with current rates or even increase revenue. This can be achieved, for example, if the single tag had APR’s but the regular combo tag didn’t. If the only way a hunter could kill any buck was by buying the combo, revenue would increase. Next, APR’s cannot result in a hunter drop out rate higher than in other zones. Third, APR’s would have to result in consistently more antlerless deer killed than antlered bucks.
Odds: I don’t think the NRC is open to any new APR discussions. 10% chance.
Rumors are swirling that the Combo Tag could come with an additional “free” antlerless tag, good for antlerless deer on private land, in the CWD zone.
Odds: 20%.
Another rumor is possibly combining regular firearms dates and muzzleloader dates, to create an “all firearms season” from November 15-the end of the old muzzleloader seasons. (2nd or 3rd Sunday in December, I believe.)
The reasoning is that the full inclusion of crossbows was a success by every measure. Full inclusion of crossbows has stabilized bow hunter numbers. As it stands now, we consistently lose 2/3’s of our firearms hunters when muzzleloader season starts. This change would essentially be full inclusion of firearms, by region. Big centerfires still would not be legal in the SLP.
Another reason is that since the legalization of certain rifles in the SLP has been so popular (.450BM) and the modern in-line is a single shot rifle in all practical terms, there’s no upside of a novelty regulation that bumps 2/3’s of gun hunters from the field. Not in the era of CWD, anyways.
Yet another reason is youth participation with rifles and shotguns is decent. Youth participation with muzzleloaders is poor.
Odds: I think this sort of thing happening in a CWD zone is solid. Better than 50/50. In fact, there’s a rumor of just extending gun season to Jan.2 in the CWD zone.
I wouldn’t expect this in the UP. Unknown if LP wide either. Mainly for the CWD zone.
Another rumor is, if regular firearms season and muzzleloader seasons are combined, that a true primitive weapons season could be created in September. The average age of side lock muzzleloader hunters is in their 60’s and traditional archers are typically an older group too. Older hunters like nicer weather and, since it’s outside of other seasons, it’s a way to introduce kids to primitive weapons hunting, before even the firearms youth hunt.
While few deer would be killed, it’s an opportunity and participation season.
Odds: 10-20%.
There’s a rumor that smokeless powder muzzleloaders will be legal, if “all firearms” are allowed, by region.
Odds: Pretty good, since rifles are allowed in the SLP.
There’s a rumor archery season will be expanded, at least in CWD zones.
Odds: Almost certain.
There’s rumors that the legislature may have to create a mandatory Disease Surveillance Tag, like how Illinois has it’s mandatory Habitat Stamp. The price tag of CWD is going to suck the oxygen away from everything else MDNR does. A $15 tag is probably coming at some point.
Odds: Zero in an hot election year. Maybe in 2019.
The same is true with any rumors about a deer baiting license. Although a baiting license is unlikely, because enforcement would require baiting to be legal only on private land.
But these are just rumors and ideas being kicked around.
It’s easily 50/50 the NRC just implements the CWD Response Plan and does nothing additional, at all.
