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Discussion Starter #1
Probably already in the US by now (we should have restricted flights from the U.K.) -

The first cases of a new virus variant that British authorities said could be 70 percent more transmissible after it was discovered in the U.K., were detected in France, Ireland and Sweden over the weekend.

Fears over the new strain led China's aviation regulator to suspend flights to and from the U.K on Sunday until at least Jan. 10. More than 40 countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Ireland and Japan have also placed restrictions on travel from Britain.

BioNTech has said it’s confident that its coronavirus vaccine works against the new U.K. variant, but added that further studies are needed to be completely certain.
 

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Probably already in the US by now (we should have restricted flights from the U.K.) -

The first cases of a new virus variant that British authorities said could be 70 percent more transmissible after it was discovered in the U.K., were detected in France, Ireland and Sweden over the weekend.

Fears over the new strain led China's aviation regulator to suspend flights to and from the U.K on Sunday until at least Jan. 10. More than 40 countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Ireland and Japan have also placed restrictions on travel from Britain.

BioNTech has said it’s confident that its coronavirus vaccine works against the new U.K. variant, but added that further studies are needed to be completely certain.
If you read the article, it says that the new variant has been around since at least September. That means that it is highly likely that it’s already here as well as much of the rest of the world. When this story was the new hot news item last week, the [up to] 70% more contagious number for repeated by everyone, but no one seems to know exactly where that figure came from. The other thing going on at the same time that this story broke was the UK and European Union reaching a trade deal. Many of the European counties implementing temporarily travel bans seemed more like a way to poke them in spite for leaving their union and finally getting a decent trade deal put in place.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
the [up to] 70% more contagious number for repeated by everyone, but no one seems to know exactly where that figure came from.
Just one more item to look at for those that are interested. The up to 70% percent number does seem rather high, even if the new variant is only 25% more transmittable that is not good.
Should be some data released soon with more details. If more that 40 countries are taking it seriously there should be something to the story.
The post holiday surge may turn out to be more a concern.
 

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Just one more item to look at for those that are interested. The up to 70% percent number does seem rather high, even if the new variant is only 25% more transmittable that is not good.
Should be some data released soon with more details. If more that 40 countries are taking it seriously there should be something to the story.
The post holiday surge may turn out to be more a concern.
When it is everywhere, shutting down travel with the UK while leaving open travel with the other countries that have confirmed cases doesn’t help, while also leaving open travel with other countries that likely have it but just haven’t confirmed it yet. If you want to talk about travel bans, every country current with cases should have their boarders closed, and after four weeks without any confirmed cases they would reopen travel to other countries in the same boat. If we aren’t doing that, these one off proposals are designed to be feel good measures without much actual impact.

We shouldn’t be waiting soon for data to be released; whatever jackwagon started calling it up to 70% more contagious should be owning up to making the statement and point everyone to the data used to stand on.
 

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And how ad is this new one supposed to be? Anyone hospitalized with it or just checking positive with the sniffles?


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It’s quickly becoming the most prevalent strain in the UK, but there has been nothing put forth to suggest it’s any better or worse than the rest of the strains. Since it’s been there for months, there is a good chance when their fall surge started, this was the one that took off more than others. But other countries in Europe had similar fall spikes with the prior strands. So far, it’s much a due about nothing other than speculation and media hype.
 

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Funny that we can't call it the China Virus. But it is acceptable to call it the UK strain.
The sad thing is the people who were decrying a travel ban in China back in January as racist seem to think a UK travel ban now would be perfectly fine for the exact same reason.

The popular national sentiments between European countries is often like the sentiments between UM and OSU fan bases. Look at all their travel bans through that lens.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Does it spread more easily?

Yes. Experts now think the new variant is between 50% and 74% more transmissible than other dominant strains, according to a study by the Center for Mathematical Modeling and Infectious Diseases (CMMID) that has not yet been peer-reviewed. The WHO estimates this would tack on 0.4 to the basic reproductive number R, which dictates how many people each infected person would spread the virus to.

Based on models of that growth, the new variant could be responsible for 90% of all new COVID-19 cases in London and East and South England by mid-January, that study found.

https://www.livescience.com/uk-variant-coronavirus-faq.html
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A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation. We fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths; SARS-CoV-2 PCR prevalence and seroprevalence; and the relative frequency of VOC 202012/01 in the three most heavily affected NHS England regions (South East, East of England, and London). We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.
 

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Does it spread more easily?

Yes. Experts now think the new variant is between 50% and 74% more transmissible than other dominant strains, according to a study by the Center for Mathematical Modeling and Infectious Diseases (CMMID) that has not yet been peer-reviewed. The WHO estimates this would tack on 0.4 to the basic reproductive number R, which dictates how many people each infected person would spread the virus to.

Based on models of that growth, the new variant could be responsible for 90% of all new COVID-19 cases in London and East and South England by mid-January, that study found.

https://www.livescience.com/uk-variant-coronavirus-faq.html
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A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation. We fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths; SARS-CoV-2 PCR prevalence and seroprevalence; and the relative frequency of VOC 202012/01 in the three most heavily affected NHS England regions (South East, East of England, and London). We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.
Now we are getting somewhere. That would have been a good post to start this thread. Should we be concerned? Yes. Should we panic and do feel good things that don’t make a difference? Probably not.
 

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"We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants."

If legitimate we should approach "herd immunity" more quickly. <sarcasm> Oh I forgot, we can only be saved by an engineered biotech mRNA vaccination. Natural infections just won't do. Bill Gates has discovered that millions of years of immunological evolution will not help us.</sarcasm>
 

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"We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants."

If legitimate we should approach "herd immunity" more quickly. <sarcasm> Oh I forgot, we can only be saved by an engineered biotech mRNA vaccination. Natural infections just won't do. Bill Gates has discovered that millions of years of immunological evolution will not help us.</sarcasm>
How long does "immunity" last? We don't know... if its a year or 2 that's an incredible number of dead people for the world population.

If you're so damn scared of a vaccine, and you want herd immunity, go snuggle up. Do your part. Or are you waiting for others to do it?
 

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How long does "immunity" last? We don't know... if its a year or 2 that's an incredible number of dead people for the world population.
No where did I say at risk individuals should not protect themselves.

People can take the vaccine; I don't care. Just stop destroying America because of selfish personal fears.
 

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No where did I say at risk individuals should not protect themselves.

People can take the vaccine; I don't care. Just stop destroying America because of selfish personal fears.
I don’t see how your proposal is even remotely possible without tens or hundreds of millions dead or at very least hiding out for years and years.
 

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I don’t see how your proposal is even remotely possible without tens or hundreds of millions dead or at very least hiding out for years and years.
Save you fear porn for your fan club.

I did not make a proposal. I did not say no one should take the vaccine. I did not say at risk people should not take precautions.

Here is my proposal:
No lockdowns. Zero.
At risk people should take precautions based on their personal risk assessment.
Those who want to be vaccinated can take the vaccine.
 

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What about the new new strain or strains awaiting discovery?? At least traffic volumes are awesome. Silver lining in every dark cloud.


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I don’t see how your proposal is even remotely possible without tens or hundreds of millions dead or at very least hiding out for years and years.
I could have sworn this virus has a survival rate of a little over 97 % according to the experts. With "tens or hundreds of millions dead" I guess those experts are wrong. Why do I get the feeling some people are so obsessed with this virus to the point they have become irrational.
 

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Save you fear porn for your fan club.

I did not make a proposal. I did not say no one should take the vaccine. I did not say at risk people should not take precautions.

Here is my proposal:
No lockdowns. Zero.
At risk people should take precautions based on their personal risk assessment.
Those who want to be vaccinated can take the vaccine.
There are different views on what is selfish, as you put it. Neither yours or mine is necessarily correct.
 
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