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Obviously Michigan weather is a crapshoot but...

Based on your years of experience afield, what are your predictions for the fall weather and deer patterns? My guess is the herd will be healthy after a mild winter and lots of food and water this summer. Bedding and travel routes may have shifted due to flooding, so maybe last year's dry spots in the middle of the swamp aren't as accessible. The big boys might have to travel farther, or possibly favor some thicker green cover, or shift their home territory altogether.

As for the weather, I'm guessing warm and wet. Whatever weather pattern we're in doesn't seem to be changing much, so it'll look a lot like last winter.
 

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All I'm gonna say is during the past couple of weeks monsoons I said many times, "Mother Nature must have thought Joe Archer was out deer hunting"!!!
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Hmm.

Varied light brightness levels after sunrise.
Accumulating decreases in light after sundown.
Winds from light to variable with occasional stronger winds. From all points of the compass over time.
Near normal precipitation , with intervals of higher or lower amounts.

Frost before Christmas.
Snow before New Years day.
Some areas will see snow accumulations last. Others , not so much.

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We have a spot that is accessed by cutting a trail through a swamp, always cut around labor day. In a normal year when we cut the trail it's muddy and by season the water is at least half way up your boots. I'll just take waders this year to cut the trail and hope the water drops to below my boot line by the time the season rolls around.

Other than that, some days I'll bitch because it's too warm and others because it's too cold... but I'll still hunt. Then I hope we don't have too many days with a east wind.
 

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It all depends on where you are looking. From my view the OP could not be more wrong.

2021 has been the driest year in a decade. We are right at 4” of total rainfall since May 1st. Winter was a few weeks shorter but that was split between starting a little late and ending a little earlier. The winter of ‘20-‘21 was normal but less severe than the last 3. We only had 6 continuous months of snow cover instead of 7 plus months.

My best guess is that we will see our first frost by the end of the first full week of September, 2-3 snow events in October and single digit temps or lower temps in November, of course there will be snow. Deer will begin to head for the yards during the second week of firearms season and be gone by the end of muzzleloader season due to winter like conditions. The above happens every year not occasionally. Hunting above the 46th doesn’t change much from year to year. YMMV.
 

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NOAA seasonal prediction for October November and December.
777798



Prediction for November, December and January.
777799


Things will look like deer season. The guys hunting closer to the equator will see warmer conditions than those closer to the North Pole. Some will complain about corn not being harvested and some will complain on not being able to get into camp due to high snow accumulations. One thing that will remain true is that the DNR will paint the picture of a great upcoming deer season for their prediction.
 

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Vacation days are already booked. Tornado, hail or blizzard I'm hitting the woods on my days off. Someday I will be able to hunt the prime weather days, god willing.
 

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We have a spot that is accessed by cutting a trail through a swamp, always cut around labor day. In a normal year when we cut the trail it's muddy and by season the water is at least half way up your boots. I'll just take waders this year to cut the trail and hope the water drops to below my boot line by the time the season rolls around.

Other than that, some days I'll bitch because it's too warm and others because it's too cold... but I'll still hunt. Then I hope we don't have too many days with a east wind.

Last few years been more easterly winds I've ever remembered.. always have a couple sets on state land now ;) can't step wheels on my ground with an east wind
 

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Last few years been more easterly winds I've ever remembered.. always have a couple sets on state land now ;) can't step wheels on my ground with an east wind
Oh yeah, more than I remember years ago. We do have a few sets for east winds but primarily our properties are set up for a west wind. Although a couple of the east wind spots just have something about them that it feels like a brute could show up at any time.

One east wind spot is set on a ridge over looking a creek and beyond the creek it's thick bedding. A weekend in early November last year I sat there two days in a row and literally had deer and/or chasing bucks near by all day long. One of those times where it was just as exciting to sit and watch as it is shoot something.
 

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It depends on my health.Last year I had the shingles and could only hunt a little and October was real nice not to hot.So I will give health report in middle of September.If Iam healthy look for hot October.If i break a leg or arm it will be perfect for hunting.It seemed that way last 3 years
 

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It depends on my health.Last year I had the shingles and could only hunt a little and October was real nice not to hot.So I will give health report in middle of September.If Iam healthy look for hot October.If i break a leg or arm it will be perfect for hunting.It seemed that way last 3 years
Wish you well !

Far as weather.... Who the hell knows, they can't be accurate the day of.. Let a lone then.

One things for sure. I'll hunt :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
I definitely wouldn’t mind an early frost. Mosquitoes have been nuts this summer. They always seem to find that one tiny opening that didn’t get enough spray when I’m out scouting.
 

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Wish you well !

Far as weather.... Who the hell knows, they can't be accurate the day of.. Let a lone then.

One things for sure. I'll hunt :)
Same here! When I take vacation to hunt, I am out morning and evenings for at least 8 hours per day! Dry, warm, freezing cold, sleet, snow, or rain; Have tree umbrella! Will travel!
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Same here! When I take vacation to hunt, I am out morning and evenings for at least 8 hours per day! Dry, warm, freezing cold, sleet, snow, or rain; Have tree umbrella! Will travel!
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I will hunt in any weather if healthy.Except I won’t bow hunt in evening if it’s going to be to warm for a deer to be good in morning if you don’t get it that night and have to look in morning.Only happened to me once with nice buck.Found in morning and meat was spoiled.Felt awful and said never again
 

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I've seen it all on opening day of October 1st. Below freezing and frost. 75°F and sunny. Raining. Snow. The weather brings what it does. What I have learned is to wait to see forecasts. Currently, I have a job that allows me to take time off at a moments notice. I've stopped planning to hunt 3 or 4 days weeks out in advance. Control what you can control and accept what you cannot.
 

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Hahahaha. These weather guys are the only people in the world that can be wrong as much as they are and still keep their jobs.
 
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