Tracking Michigan Covid-19 Data

Discussion in 'Sound Off' started by piketroller, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. pescadero

    pescadero Premium Member

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    You claim it impacted Blacks harder than Whites because it hit areas of high black population.
    It impacted blacks harder than whites in areas of low black population, at similar multipliers.

    You claim the impact was related to blacks being higher population in cities - but in rural areas, where blacks are a small minority... the black populations are impacted more.

    You claim it's because of an early surge in black cities... but similar differentials on race exist in current data, from rural areas. Heck - SUPER white states with 95%+ white populations see the same skew.

    Folks claim it's co-morbidities... but the differential exists after adjusting for co-morbidities.

    Folks claim it's age... but the differential gets even WORSE when you adjust for age.
     
  2. piketroller

    piketroller

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    You only found a study on deaths. Find a study on cases.
     
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  3. pescadero

    pescadero Premium Member

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    Parpia, et. al., Racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality across Michigan, United States


    "Between March 16 and October 26, 2020, a total of 6,065 COVID-19 related deaths were recorded in the surveillance and death certificate databases together, of which 96.3% occurred among Black or White individuals. Black individuals represent 15.7% of the combined Black and White population of Michigan yet accounted for 40.1% of the COVID-19 deaths. The proportion of deaths reported among Black individuals in Michigan is significantly higher than the proportion of deaths we would expect based on population representation alone (p<0.001). "

    "Black individuals who died from COVID-19 were significantly younger (median [IQR]: 72 [63, 81], p<0.001) than White individuals (81 [72, 89]) and were less likely to be retired or
    unemployed (12.9%, p<0.001)
    than White decedents (22.2%)."

    "Black decedents (29.7%) were less likely to have been living or working in high-risk or congregate living facilities than White individuals (54.8%, p<0.001)."

    "When stratified by age, sex, and number of comorbidities, the mortality rate for the Black population was significantly higher than that for the White population for every pair-wise comparison (p<0.001). Black males under the age of 65 years with no comorbidities had a COVID-19 mortality rate of 6.2 per 10,000 population, while White males with no comorbidities in the same age group experienced a lower mortality rate of 0.53 per 10,000"

    "Among those aged 65 and older, the COVID-19 mortality rate was 367.5 and 363.1 per 10,000 population for Black males and females respectively who had no comorbidities, compared to 31.6 and 35.9 per 10,000 among White males and females with no comorbidities. The relative difference in mortality rate is also stark when comparing Black and White individuals with comorbidities. Black males aged 65 and older with multiple comorbidities had a mortality rate that was 3.5 times that of White males with multiple comorbidities."

    ... and as for it being because of earlier attack on black communities:

    "and peak daily deaths occurred 3 days earlier for Black individuals than White (April 8, 2020 vs April 11, 2020)."
     
  4. Fishndude

    Fishndude

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    How many people don't get tested the second they start to have symptoms? How many wait a couple/few days, or a week, before they get checked? That would delay the increase in case numbers from Thanksgiving.
     
  5. pescadero

    pescadero Premium Member

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    Chelsea K. Ayers, Karli K. Kondo, Somnath Saha, et al. Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19–Related Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths: A Systematic Review. Ann Intern Med. 0;0 [Epub ahead of print 1 December 2020]. doi:10.7326/M20-6306

    "Evidence suggests that African-American/Black and Hispanic populations experience higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with non-Hispanic White populations (Appendix Table 2). Among 15 cohort and cross-sectional studies (13 fair-quality, 2 poor-quality) comparing the risk for a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test between African American/Black and White populations, including 10 large studies of more than 1000 individuals each, all but 2 studies detected a disparity (19, 21, 23-25, 29, 32, 34–36, 40, 45, 47, 51, 53). The studies detecting a disparity estimate that African American/Black populations have a 1.5 to 3.5 times higher risk for infection than White populations."
     
  6. WALLEYE MIKE

    WALLEYE MIKE Staff Member Admin Super Mod Mod

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    Look at the bright side, less taxes paid. And the only one to argue with is your self.
     
  7. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Since you won't look at the presentations the state puts out, here is a graphical display of what I'm asking for and what you are trying to supply.

    Here's the chart from the December 1 presentation on cases
    upload_2020-12-4_11-17-52.png


    I'm asking you for a study comparing cases in the spring period to the fall period. The end of the spring period and beginning of the fall period don't really matter, and my chosen times were arbitrary trying to capture the majority of the peaks and not the stagnation in between.
    upload_2020-12-4_11-18-25.png

    Instead of a spring vs. fall comparison with cases, you respond with studies on deaths in their period.
    upload_2020-12-4_11-21-11.png
     
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  8. sureshot006

    sureshot006 Staff Member Mod

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    Of course there is. A certain guy said he will wear a mask for his first 100 days and by the end he expects a drop in cases. Well duh... that's the tail end of "flu season."
     
  9. pescadero

    pescadero Premium Member

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    I've looked at it. The conclusion you are drawing from it is completely unsupported.


    The idea that one can look at post October 1 data, only in Michigan, while ignoring all the other data and make ANY claim as to whether there are preferential attack rates is simply ludicrous.

    You keep wanting to act like whites possibly having a slightly higher than population percentage IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS means in Michigan means there are preferential attack rates. It is evidence of no such thing.
     
  10. pescadero

    pescadero Premium Member

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    Chelsea K. Ayers, Karli K. Kondo, Somnath Saha, et al. Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19–Related Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths: A Systematic Review. Ann Intern Med. 0;0 [Epub ahead of print 1 December 2020]. doi:10.7326/M20-6306



    "Evidence suggests that African-American/Black and Hispanic populations experience higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with non-Hispanic White populations"
     
  11. DirtySteve

    DirtySteve

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    Maybe. I dont know anyone that waited but i suppose some do. If you wait the timeframe your family has to quarantine is affected. It is beneficial to test asap.
     
  12. sureshot006

    sureshot006 Staff Member Mod

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    Huh? Why would quarantine be affected based on when a test comes back? Isn't it from last time of exposure?
     
  13. DirtySteve

    DirtySteve

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    If they know the exposure yes.
     
  14. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Not the last two weeks but the last three and a half months. There is evidence of it in the data the state published. But there are no pier reviewed papers on it because it is too recent. The only arguments you have are to say that the data published by the state is wrong, or weight a few months to see if anyone publishes a new study comparing different surges of the virus.
     
  15. pescadero

    pescadero Premium Member

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    The data is not wrong.

    Your conclusion cannot be drawn from that set of data.