Tracking Michigan Covid-19 Data

Discussion in 'Sound Off' started by piketroller, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. WALLEYE MIKE

    WALLEYE MIKE Staff Member Admin Super Mod Mod

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    Any way to find out at what age group is leading the spread? 18-30? 30-50?
    Just thinking instead of restricting businesses restrict the spreaders. Quarantine them for 4 weeks and see what happens.
     
  2. sureshot006

    sureshot006 Staff Member Mod

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    The state has charts available. Just have to visit the site.
     

  3. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Update for 11/21

    I was out in the boat yesterday form 1 pm to 1 am this morning, and couldn't stay awake when I got home to do an update. So today you get a bonus update for Friday and Saturday.

    On Friday, Michigan reported 9779 new confirmed cases and 53 confirmed deaths.
    On Saturday, Michigan reported 7828 new confirmed cases and 101 confirmed deaths, 42 of which were new and 59 of which were from a review of prior records.

    The moving average for new cases keeps going up, but at a slower rate than last week. Int now stands at 7270 cases per day. The moving average for new reported deaths keeps climbing slowly as well and is at 49 deaths per day. The moving average for the raw death reports that includes the prior reclassified deaths has jumped around the last couple days and is now at 69 per day after a high of 73 on Thursday and dropping to 64 yesterday.

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    St Clair County reported over the last two days 307 new cases, 4 new deaths, and 1 new hospitalization. The moving averages for new cases is up to 117 per day, and the moving average for new deaths is up to 1.1 per day now. But the hospitalization average has dropped to 2.6 per day.

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  4. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Here's some bonus content for Sunday. The state is now putting out data on the percentage of people visiting the ER with COVID symptoms. This takes the testing variability out of the picture with drastically different numbers of tests being done in March vs. later. The peak in the spring was just over 5.2% of ER visitors exhibiting COVID symptoms on March 30 using the seven day moving average. The peak for new reported cases in the spring came on April 7 using the moving average, but if you take the lag to get testing results out of the picture, the state has April 1 pegged as when the seven day moving average for new cases hit the spring peak going by onset of symptoms. That aligns pretty closely with the peak in the ER visit data.

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    This data is only through November 18 as there is some lag getting these numbers aggregated and published. As of November 18, it is at 1.4%, and for the last ten days of available data going back to November 9, this value as flattened out in the 1.3 to 1.4% range. This data would say that on a statewide basis, things are only about a quarter as bad as the situation was at the end of March. Back then, it was heavily concentrated in the Detroit metro area. Now it's more evenly spread everywhere. Muskegon, Ottawa, and Bay Counties seem to be the worst hotspots in the Lower Peninsula right now, but they aren't even close to how bad it was in the Detroit metro area in the spring.
     
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  5. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Update for 11/23

    Over the last two days, Michigan reported 11511 new confirmed cases, which is an average of 5755.5 new confirmed cases per day over Sunday and Monday. Likewise, 65 confirmed deaths were reported over the last two days, which is an average of 32.5 per day over Sunday and Monday. The moving average for new cases has dropped down to 7091 cases per day and it looks like we might have just crested this latest surge. The last two days had more than 1200 few cases reported than the prior Sunday-Monday. With deaths, the growth rate seems to be slowing and possibly nearing a peak as well. The moving averages are at 71 (raw) and 50 (corrected) deaths per day. Back in April, the moving average for new deaths crested a week after the new case count crested. This surge looks like it might be behaving similarly.

    With the new restrictions going into force last Wednesday, I wouldn't expect to see the effects of that show up until the end of this week. People have to catch it, then it takes a few days for symptoms to show up, and then there's waiting for testing results to come back. It seem most people that do get symptoms start seeing them two days after infection, but it can take up to 10 days or more. Then on the testing side, 4-6 days to get results after testing is what I'm hearing now with so many tests being done now. So realistically, if someone was infected on Tuesday of last week (but would have not been infected if the activity that lead to infection was banned on Wednesday), the earliest the Tuesday infection would show up in the data would be today (2 days to show symptoms + 4 days for test results), and tomorrow would be the earliest a case from Wednesday would have shown up in the case counts, but would be absent if it was prevented. If this trend in the case data shows continual decline, then it will support the theory that the tide was turned in cases by voluntary behaviors ahead of the latest Lansing orders. That would be very encouraging to show that people are taking responsibility for their own actions and would lower the concern with a new surge when restrictions get lifted.

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    St Clair County reported over the last two days 198 new cases, no new deaths, and 3 new hospitalizations. The moving average for new cases has crept up to 118 per day, but it looks like it may be getting close to cresting as well. The moving average for new deaths is holding steady at 1.1 per day, and the moving average for new hospitalizations went up slightly from the last update on Saturday and is now at 2.7 per day. 23% of the inpatient hospital beds are now being used by COVID patients, but 16% of the hospital beds in the county are open. The largest hospital in the county is reporting it is at 100% capacity.

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  6. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Update for 11/24

    Michigan reported 6290 new confirmed cases and 145 confirmed deaths, 94 of which were new and 51 of which were from a review of prior records. The seven day moving average for new cases continues the recent trend with another drop today and is down to 6925 cases per day. With deaths, we see more evidence that some of the recent deaths have been backlogged and we got another set of big numbers today, pushing up the moving averages to 80 (raw) and 56 (corrected) deaths per day.

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    St Clair County reported 100 new cases, no new deaths, and 1 new hospitalization. All three moving averages I've focused on for the county fell to 117 new cases per day, 0.7 deaths per day, and 2.1 hospitalizations per day.

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  7. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Update for 11/25

    Michigan reported 4273 new confirmed cases and 73 confirmed deaths. The moving average for new cases continues to decline and is now down to 6710 cases per day. The moving averages for new deaths each went up slightly to 82 (raw) and 57 (corrected) deaths per day.

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    St Clair County reported 92 new cases, no new deaths, and 1 new hospitalization. All three moving averages being tracked there either went down - cases down to 115 per day and hospitalizations down to 1.6 per day - or stayed the same - deaths holding steady at 0.7 per day.

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  8. HUBBHUNTER

    HUBBHUNTER

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    Edit: I think I answered my question. Thanks for keeping us updated.
     
  9. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Cases are going down because enough people’s behaviors are changing. My 11/23 update has my thoughts on the recent mandated closures.

    Will it go back up? If I had that crystal ball I’d be making tons of money on proposition bets for anyone that would take them.
     
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  10. loomis82

    loomis82

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    It'll be interesting to see where this holiday weekend puts us. I know a lot are staying home, but also know a lot doing as they normally do.
     
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  11. piketroller

    piketroller

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    We’ll know a lot more in two weeks. Right now I’m more concerned as to how big of a slow down we’ll see from lower testing throughput with essentially a four day weekend, and then watching the backlog get worked through next week. The seven day average will even it out some, but we haven’t been through a holiday break this long since COVID hit.
     
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  12. HUBBHUNTER

    HUBBHUNTER

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    Before I edited my first post my point was how would your 23rd update be reflective of closures starting the 18th? Wouldn't it take another week or so to see changes in cases?
     
  13. HUBBHUNTER

    HUBBHUNTER

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    I heard on the radio yesterday morning that airports are running at about half the travelers as last year. A big decline but still a hell of a lot of people moving around the country.
     
  14. piketroller

    piketroller

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    The data as of 11/23 should have nothing to do with closures that didn’t start until 11/18. The only argument you could make is if people voluntarily stopped going to bars when it was announced on 11/15 three days earlier. But that sounds like a farce to me. I don’t think the people regularly congregating in bars had a mass come to Gretchen moment and decided to give it a try this time. Most likely people are seeing the effects first hand with family and friends and COVID is no longer only an ambiguous threat that happened to Detroit in the spring and the U.P. at the end of summer.
     
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  15. sureshot006

    sureshot006 Staff Member Mod

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    If you look at the testing trends the stagnation/decline isn't all that surprising. Test numbers kind of went flat and even declined the last few days. % positive has stayed fairly flat for a bit though.

    I dont know how widespread it is but I thought restrictions were starting to be placed in who gets tested. Something about only symptomatic? Again not sure if its true.