Tracking Michigan Covid-19 Data

Discussion in 'Sound Off' started by piketroller, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. DirtySteve

    DirtySteve

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    Yeah heres to hoping. The covid "specialists" at the hospital just say it isnt uncommon to have some kidney related issues. They really dont know if it will be a longterm or short term thing.

    Not kidney related but I had liver issues and inflamation due to excess iron in my system. After a couple years of getting the iron under control my liver i am told is fine. The dr said if things dont get too bad it can heal itself. Hoping she has similar experience.
     
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  2. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Update for 10/23

    Michigan reported 1826 new cases and 20 confirmed deaths. This is the second straight day with lower case counts than the corresponding day last week. With Thursday-Friday usually being the high point of the week reporting cycle, lets hope these numbers are up to date and we won't see a backlog of cases in the next few days that should have been reported today. The moving average is down to 1656 cases per day. The moving averages for new deaths did each got up slightly to 22.9 (raw) and 16.1 (corrected) deaths per day.

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    St Clair County reported 14 new cases, no new deaths, and 8 new recoveries, pushing up the number of active cases to 315. The moving average for new cases per day dropped slightly for the first time since October 8 and is down to 23.9. With having case counts in the double digits per day for sever weeks now, the hospitalization rate rose to 2 per day by the middle of last week, but has fallen to under 1 per day and seems to be staying there for now.

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  3. CHASINEYES

    CHASINEYES

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    I agree, the disease was far more prevalent than we all thought. Increased testing now. I wonder how loss of gained immunity would play into current and future numbers.
     
  4. Fishndude

    Fishndude

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    Prayers for your wife, DS. I know a handful of people who have "recovered" from covid, but have lingering effects. They are all scared because the lingering effects change, and they have no idea what to expect, or what to do. None of them want to risk getting the virus again, because it was very unpleasant for them the first time. So many unknowns. So few solutions. Too many skeptics who simply won't take precautions to protect themselves, and others. Strange days, for sure.
     
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  5. Uber-Schneider

    Uber-Schneider

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    I'm going to generalize some here, but it makes sense. For the death rates, it's been known from early on that this virus affects the older people and those with underlying conditions the worst. When you look at the MI CV web site (https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173---,00.html), you have to push the right buttons but it becomes pretty apparent that that's the case when you look at the death per millions data (see 4a file attached). Suffice it to say, the people that were most vulnerable at the start of this (age/comorbidity) have passed on, and the rest appear to be part of the "herd immunity" aspect that mathematically has started it's climb. So even though the cases are still growing, the death rate per million is getting smaller and smaller.

    Two other notes as I've been tracking as this unfolded from the start. Early on there was a graphic put out about this being a virus smuggled from a Canadian lab to a lab in Wuhan only 20 miles from where the outbreak supposedly started (greatgameindia.com?). I haven't seen much to disprove that theory yet. In fact, I believe I ran across an account that they supposedly can't replicate the virus in the bats it supposedly mutated from...

    The other note to consider: I also ran across a note that the virus somehow (I'm definitely NOT a biology major or I'd try to explain it) interferes with the ability of red blood cells to deliver oxygen. This would make sense when you hear of so many people being affected in different ways and long term issues, as each person's physiology is different. Anyone with diabetes for example already has kidneys that are being taxed and less oxygen flow would exasperate that.

    Hope this food for thought helps.
     

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  6. piketroller

    piketroller

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    If you have credible information about the virus originating in a Canadian lab and being smuggled into Wuhan, or about it not being able to spread to bats, please start a new thread so we can dive deeply into those topics. But they don't have anything to do with daily reported statistics here in Michigan, so it's a bit off topic of this thread.
     
  7. Shoeman

    Shoeman Mods

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    This thread is not your about synopsis! Keep that in mind when posting!
     
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  8. piketroller

    piketroller

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    Update for 10/26

    Since Friday, here are the numbers Michigan reported for Saturday / Sunday / Monday

    New Confirmed Cases: 3338 / 1940.5 / 1940.5
    Confirmed Deaths: 35 (8 new, 27 prior) / 14.5 / 14.5

    After what was a dip on Thursday and Friday over the prior week for new cases, a big number went up on Saturday, likely from delayed aggregation of the Thursday/Friday numbers. The moving average for new cases has grown each of the last three days, and likely will until the 3338 cases from Saturday ages out of the average unless cases climb even higher than that by the end of the week. The average as of today is at 2015 cases per day. The small bright spot with new cases is that the number of probable cases has started to decline, which means less people waiting for a test result and more people getting a test result. High numbers of probable cases today usually means most of them get turned into confirmed cases in the following days. Less now means less confirmed cases later.

    The moving averages for new deaths each has climbed to 25.7 (raw) and 17.3 (corrected) deaths per day. So far deaths are up proportionally with cases, and are still 8 times lower than the April peak. If we extrapolate this 8X factor to new cases, we would need to see around 16,000 new confirmed cases per day to match the prior death rate.

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    St Clair County has reported since Friday 100 new cases, no new deaths, and 27 new recoveries, pushing up the number of active cases by 73 to 388. Hospitalizations continue at a slower rate than earlier in the year, with the cumulative rate being now at 12.4% of all cases. This rate was at 15.4% at the beginning of October, and had been still above 20% in mid July. The daily case rate does continue to climb, and the seven day average is now at 30 cases per day.

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  9. Polkahero

    Polkahero

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    What is a half a case/death supposed to mean?
     
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  10. piketroller

    piketroller

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    It means that there was an odd number between Sunday and Monday combined. The state doesn’t put out numbers on Sunday anymore. There were 29 deaths over the last two days, so it averages to 14.5 per day.
     
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  11. Uber-Schneider

    Uber-Schneider

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    Uh, okay. Just wanted to update my post. I accidentally left off a chart from the state website I wanted to post.

    2020-10-26 MI CV Data Summary 2a.JPG
     
  12. Slimshady

    Slimshady

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    Thank you for posting all of this data. The are 2 pieces of data that I don't see:

    1) The number of cases per 1000 tests. Yes the number of positive cases has gone up, but so has the amount of testing we are doing. So if you are doing 2X as many tests, but the number of positive cases only goes up by 25% (just throwing out numbers), then the data isn't as bad as it may appear.

    2) The other thing that I want to know is how many of those positive tests are people who tested positive for the anti-bodies, meaning that they already had it, but are not sick now? I had read they were including those in the positive test count. If so, that is very misleading.

    Until we have a viable vaccine, people are going to continue to get the virus and the vast majority will be fine, especially as the treatments continue to improve. There is just no way around that fact. We should continue to fight it with masks and social distancing, however, the CDC data shows that 85% of people who contracted the virus claimed they wore masks most of the time, if not all the time. What really matters is the number of net-new hospitalizations and ICU visits. If we start approaching the capacity of the health-care system, then we have real issues.

    One of the things that could change this is if they would allow people to get the treatments they need without requiring a hospital visit. Unfortunately, the same people who are saying we need to listen to the scientists are not taking their own advice. They are letting money and politics get in the way of logic and science. Read below:

    https://aapsonline.org/america-there-is-hope-and-help-for-treating-covid-19-at-home/
     
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  13. piketroller

    piketroller

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    As of Sunday, antibody testing has only been 6.44% of all testing reported by the state, so the vast majority is still diagnostic testing.

    The number of cases per test is the test positivity rate. Local news media doesn’t push that statistic as a scare tactic like case and death numbers, so I don’t focus on it much here. During most of the summer, the rate was around 3% and bounced around in the 2-4% range. Now it’s up in the 4-6% range. Total testing was pretty constant August through early October, but in the last couple weeks we have been expanding testing again. The vast majority of this latest surge in cases come from an increase in positivity rate and not just from more testing.
     
  14. DirtySteve

    DirtySteve

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    I dont think most people are going and getting tested just because. If the numbers of tests are up it is because people feel sick or a member of their household feels sick. The other scenario is that someone was exposed to a sick person. In all of those cases there is an increase in tests because there is an increase in covid.


    The only scenario I can think of that is randomly testing at the moment are some colleges. Even then most colleges are doing targeted tests not random for 50% or 100% of their testing. My daughter goes to grand valley. Her school tests some random but the rest of the tests are people who were exposed. My son goes to MTU. They are doing testing on people who feel sick along with classmates and roommates of covid positive people.....so it really isnt random.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
  15. sureshot006

    sureshot006 Staff Member Mods

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    Wearing a cloth mask doesn't really help the wearer. It reduces the blast radius from the infected. I thought everyone would know that by now.
     
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