Thoughts on wind and waves tomorrow?

Discussion in 'Saginaw Bay and its Tributaries' started by FishDoc90, May 3, 2019.

  1. FishDoc90

    FishDoc90

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    NOAA is calling for light and variable winds tomorrow with less than 1 foot waves. With today’s wind you guys anticipating there be significantly more than 1 foot waves in the morning?
     
  2. Smallie12

    Smallie12

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    I think the problem with the wave predictors are that they often predict the same wave height based on speed of the wind solely where it is actually speed and the direction of the wind combined. I've always found that experience is the best predictor as long as the wind speed forecast is accurate. Guys with lots of experience need no wave predictor because they know a given wind speed from a given direction will result in this or that wave height. I'd guess if the winds I see predicted now at 6-8mph from a northerly, to north easterly, to east throughout the day you should be totally fine. I would estimate the waves to be between 1' to 1.5' to the occasional 2' simply because it has been blowing from the same direction and will continue to do so all day tomorrow so even though the wind speed is slowing down it will take a while for the waves to decrease that are out there right now. If there had been a complete change in direction it would lay down faster and then take time to build back up in the new direction. If this wind was from the W, SW, or South it would be less and probably just a great 1' walleye chop all day long because of the waves having less time to build with the offshore wind like is predicted for Sunday. I hope that makes sense. I know we never fish a N, NE, or E wind that is over 10mph because it is 2' minimum out there and sometimes bigger and we are wussies and like calm seas:)
     
    eagle eyes, breminnie and fishin_noob like this.

  3. eye-sore

    eye-sore

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    Leaving shortly. Gonna be a nice day
     
  4. waldowillie

    waldowillie

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    There are both average wind speed and wind gust speed predictions. I use windfinder.com where you just type in your location and hit Superforecast and it will give you avg. wind speed and wind gust speed predictions by the hour for the next 3 days. It is pretty accurate for 24 hours in advance but I check it every day because it gets updated.
     
  5. fishin_noob

    fishin_noob

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    That's an awesome post right there. Laying down some knowledge. You were definitely closer to right on the waves than noaa or windfinder today. Got pretty rough.

    Sent from my SM-G975U using Michigan Sportsman mobile app
     
    Smallie12 likes this.
  6. FishDoc90

    FishDoc90

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    We sat out today and went the inland route without much luck. Going to give the bay a shot in the morning
     
  7. Smallie12

    Smallie12

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    Thanks, glad to hear that (not that it was rough but that we were right). Now put that in the back of your mind and you will know what to expect the next time you plan on a fishing on a day with winds like that from that direction. Just a baseline, if you've had consistent wind direction the waves will be slightly more then what they are probably calling for regardless of direction. But, anytime the wind is from that N, NE, E direction it can be closer to 2x what they say. It depends slightly on which shore you launch and fish from too. If you launch Linwood/Pinconning area and have straight W 5-10mph constant wind you won't have much for waves unless you go out several miles but if you had launched out of Caseville/Bayport/Sebewaing on that same day the waves have around 20 miles to grow. That N, NE, and E wind they have from Canada to grow which is why it is always worse with same wind from those directions.

    I noticed we aren't too far from one another too if you are in SJ. Feel free to give me a PM if you head up again and have any doubts about what to expect and I can see if I can help you out.
     
    knotforcharter likes this.
  8. fishin_noob

    fishin_noob

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    Yep all good info. Yea I live in st Johns. Fish out of au gres at pt au gres campground. I'm learning the weather patterns of the bay but I also know how to handle rough seas. I just don't like to get stuck in the rough stuff with my little ones on board. Ever wanna swap info feel free to PM.

    Sent from my SM-G975U using Michigan Sportsman mobile app
     
  9. Smallie12

    Smallie12

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    Good to hear and best of luck to ya. It is nice to be able to handle it out there because I've seen it blow up out of no where at times and if you are far from the dock it can get hairy fast. We used to take more chances because we just had to fish and was hard to pass up a 50/50 proposition when it was hard enough to make all the stars align for the normal crew to even make plans to get together. Over the years we've taken a more laid back approach and don't feel the need to have to go out with a chance we are going to get blown off or waste our time. Not sure how much I'll get out this year again but if I do and get on something I'll try to fill ya in. But we never fish the Au Gres area so I probably wouldn't be of much help to ya.