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Polls - its blowing up in the liberals faces.....

Discussion in 'Political Discussions (FreeMichigan.com)' started by buggs, Jun 16, 2017.

  1. bucko12pt

    bucko12pt

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    And yet you all sucked it up and believed it including the whole cadre on MS! Just go back two weeks before the election and read the polls posted in this forum. :lol::lol:
     
  2. FishMichv2

    FishMichv2

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    The polls were as accurate as polls can be. The majority of the people are anti Trump and were back then as well. My point is that those polls did nothing but help Trump.
     

  3. bucko12pt

    bucko12pt

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    Actually, the polls weren't even close to being accurate, yet Clinton and the MSM ate them up gloating all the way.

    .............and I agree, they helped Trump immensely.

    Thank you.
     
  4. Jimbos

    Jimbos

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    From what we have read and heard about the DNC they weren't the sharpest tool in the shed.
    Overconfidence was their undoing.
     
    phantom cls, miruss and TDI like this.
  5. How far off were the polls before the election if the popular vote actually mattered?
    It seems to me Trump loves the limelight and so can't help himself from making his presence known in any way possible. According to you apologists for him, the media should ignore the stupid stuff he actually says and does and create 'fake news' (another in a long list of terms Donald managed to convince you to believe and regurgitate) about him that only shows him as a wise and competent C.O.C.
    What we have here is a strong need to have a review of the fable of The Emperors New Clothes.

    58c2e65ed128e.image.jpg
     
  6. Jimbos

    Jimbos

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    They had Hillary leading in. Michigan, Texas( for a while), Florida, NC, PA, come on you can do better than that.
     
  7. Sasquatch Lives

    Sasquatch Lives

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    The dems and all their made up fake news are just helping Trump. People of the US are sick of their lies and bs. They are just like the little boy who cried "wolf!". Even if there may be a real scandal, they have cried wolf so many times nobody will believe them. Same reason Trump won the election.........the idiot dems still haven't figured it out. All they know is to hate and spew lies.
     
  8. brewster

    brewster

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    The popular vote did matter, the voters in every state that wanted to vote, voted.

    Here is how the electoral college works.

    http://wonderopolis.org/wonder/how-does-the-electoral-college-work
     
  9. TK81

    TK81

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    Yo, Jack, how did the electoral polls look the day before the election? I have to believe at least a couple of those genius institutions had the sense to conduct electoral polls. I'm too lazy to google now...gotta steam clean the carpet, do some transplanting, and clean the garage before we head for the lake.
     
  10. pescadero

    pescadero

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    The polls were as accurate as the have ever been in an election, and the aggregate polls were well within their margin of error.

    Polls can be completely accurate within their margin of error, and still make incorrect predictions. Things like margin of error and confidence intervals exist for a reason.

    Statistics aren't a strong suit of a lot of folks around here obviously. Hopefully noen of you work in quality control analysis.
     
    Northernfisher likes this.
  11. motdean

    motdean

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    Pescy,

    The polls that we were provided the results to should never have looked the way that they did. Their margins of error should NOT have been that far off.

    Think about not only the number of polls, but the data in each poll.

    I do have some background in both statistics and probability, as I know you do....I am hopeful that you sit back and think about that post a bit....
     
  12. pescadero

    pescadero

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    Margin of error has absolutely nothing to do with the results of the polls - margin of error is purely a statistical measure based on estimated sampling accuracy, poll sample pool size, and a number of other things.

    Aggregate polls were MORE accurate in 2016 than in 2012.

    Polls have an inherent accuracy limit - they are statistical predictions. Predictions (as anyone who has worked in QC knows) can be completely accurate within their margin of error and still get wrong answers.
     
    Northernfisher likes this.
  13. motdean

    motdean

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    Sure. What you have said is correct, but to put it in layman' terms.....they could have polled 70% of people that normally vote Democrat and gotten the results that they did....however if they had polled an even distribution of all voters, the results could have been much different.

    This is just one example.
    Putting it another way: I could poll the first 10 hunters out of the woods on the opener of deer season. If non of them have a deer, I could say that no deer hunters were successful on opening day....a poorly designed poll.

    It all comes down to the design of the poll, but I think you know that.

    There is absolutely no way that that many of the polls should have or even could have been that inaccurate....that just isn't statistically possible.
     
  14. Question. Were the polls of the general electorate or of those who are the electoral college? If the former then the polls weren't that far off, no?