Mass deer cull planning in Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'Whitetail Deer Disease' started by Groundsize, Mar 4, 2019.

  1. otcarcher

    otcarcher Banned

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    And you miss the point again.....

    I'm all about the science behind this. What matters just as much as total number tested is where you test. With one exception in Boone County, with only 70 tests, look where the positives showed up. Again, with the exception of the higher prevalent area in SW Boone, the positives showed up in otherwise low prevalence areas. Think that matters, or do you want to throw more math at an otherwise common sense explanation?
     
  2. rork

    rork

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    Maybe you are saying they are oversampling low prevalence areas even within county, or at least were in 2003-2012. If so that is news to me.
    Links to data or articles to that effect might help me.
     

  3. otcarcher

    otcarcher Banned

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    I'm curious. Have you heard of Cochran's Sample Size Formula, or other sampling techniques for rare events? If so, can you explain why the math example in your previous post is completely irrelevant? Great conversation by the way.
     
  4. Lightfoot

    Lightfoot

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    The info is in the link I posted for motdean.

    https://www.dnr.illinois.gov/programs/CWD/Pages/default.aspx
     
  5. rork

    rork

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    Could you be more specific. I have read https://www.dnr.illinois.gov/programs/CWD/Documents/CWDAnnualReport20172018.pdf which is the link in the page you give labeled "2018". It indicates thorough testing of Boone county, with every "usable" sample tested (though that only about 25% of hunter-killed deer are usable seems odd). I don't see how the sampling is very biased. It is of course true that there may be less deer around where you shot them to piece in previous years, and hunters may be less enthusiastic about killing deer where CWD is highest density. And that you are more likely to bring a skinny deer in for testing. Several other things like that. The estimates and graphs I gave include both hunter, sharpshooter, and roadkill deer, but publications use just hunter-killed. So for Boone 2017-2018 I had 3/124 samples, not 2/70.
    I don't understand your #183. I gave the formula for the estimated standard error of the standard (unbiased) estimate of the frequency when sampling from a binomial(p,n) distribution, claiming it's sqrt(p(1-p)/n) and claiming that is worth understanding.
     
  6. Lightfoot

    Lightfoot

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    No I can not be more specific. I've got roughly five hours of read time and 3 pages of chicken scratch into the yearly reports (2003-2018) in that link. By all means, feel free to read and digest 16 years of Illinois DNR info.