Corona Virus Influence on the Market

Well, I wrote to a buddy a couple of days ago and said 1500 point drop. Not only am I willing to say that there will be a swing, but also the direction of the swing. (Prognosticating doesn't cost anything, does it?)

The 1500 points was just a number I threw out because I think there will be election influence as well as renewed fears of Covid-19....not based on precedent...this is an unprecedented year.

When states start to prepare and call the National Guard in for post election chaos, one would have to think the markets are not going to like that.

I also agree that a Biden win, especially if the Democrats win both the House and Senate will tumble the markets. Investors will see likely tax hikes on the horizon.

Hopefully that isn't viewed as a political post, but simply an explanation of why I see what will be happening in the markets over the next week or so.

 

I read that a signal that he's concerned about Russian economic health. Pure speculation. But I don't think Putin mandates that unless it's monetary driven. And Russia depends on that oil economy...

I think a Biden win is a short term dip followed by a 2021 climb on the tailwinds of record stimulus. As for tax hikes...yes...but where else are people going to put their money? There isn't any great options outside of the market. Even with tax changes.

 

Moved all my 401k to stable accounts Sunday night. Will start to buy back in at 25k. Will bargain shop at 23k.

 

Major correction taking place.

 

I couldn’t help but notice today that everything I put in back in April, has doubled in value.

 

Yesterday’s gains and today’s futures defies logic.

 

If you were making money hand over fist,And you have smooth tax sailing for the next 4-10 years,You have no reason not to be giddy.
The current feeling is the election has smoothed the way forward.

Markets like smooth.

 

We have a virtual tie between a guy who wants to cut taxes and one that wants to raise them (a LOT). There is absolutely no “smooth” at the present time.

 

I disagree.
No one is going to kill the golden goose that can get them re-elected.

We will get past coronavirus, and the economy will continue to grow.
Tax revenues will have to be re looked at, but no one is raising taxes prior to seeing a strong revenue increase.

 

'll revenue bills start in the house.
Not sure on how bills get blended between the Senate and House.

 

Equities were being positioned in anticipation of a possible blue wave during the week leading up to the election. Now that doesn't seem to be the case so the market is unwinding those moves and setting up for its view of the future, which is most likely a split government. The likelihood of a stimulus package also looks to be increasing, which boosts outlooks as well. Not illogical at all.

 

The true power is the Senate. The President can only push through whatever the Majority Leader will agree to.

The party that controls that body didn’t change this election, which means the tax code won’t either in the near future. That’s what the market is looking at.

 

Again, all revenue bills must start in the house.

 

That is correct, but it’s still up to McConnel as to whether the Senate considers the House Bill.