Odds of success...

[TSS Caddis]

I just finished an interesting conversation with someone(can't specify relationship) that is quite involved in the DNR's drawing processes. To be blunt the point system does not mean much. If you have 3 pts, you have 3 times the chance at being drawn then if you had 1 point, but since the pool your up against(all 1pter's, 2pter's, etc...) is so large your odds against the whole pool is still so small that it is relatively insignificant. Turns out the point system does not help quite as much as we think. Again this is comming from someone that is quite intimate with the drawing process and the numbers involved.

[stevebrandle]

That may be true, but at least a hunter will get a tag every once in a while. Unlike the elk drawing where you might as well pitch your money out the window.

[TSS Caddis]

Supposedly the elk preference point system is being discussed. If it happens it would be like the bear app and would do more for PR then increasing draw odds.

It would be nice if there were enough elk tags that eventually all would could get drawn, but the difference in the number of tags vs the number of applicants makes it still a long shot to get drawn in your lifetime.

[bohunt1]

TSS, If I read it right you are telling me that if I have 5 points I don't have any better chance at drawing a tag then someone with 1 point? Is it all "Luck ot the draw?" Or my chances are a little better than the guy with 1 point? I hope to get this stuff ironed out before next year.I plan on trying to draw a tag for the red oak dist.

[TSS Caddis]

I'm not a statistician, but what it basically comes down to is if you have 5 points you are 5 times more likely to get drawn then someone with 1 point, but in the over all pool of applications, that might mean you went from a 1% chance of being drawn to a 2% chance, since there are a number of other people in the pool with 2points, 3points etc...

It's sort of like the lotto except on quite a bit smaller scale. Hypothetically, your odds of being drawn for a bear permit might be 1:5000 if you have 1pt, or 2:5000 if you have 2pts or 3:5000 if you have 3pts. You would be 3 times better off with 3 points then 1 point, but you would still only have a 1:1666 chance of being drawn instead of 1:5000. Quite a bit better odds, but still a long shot.

If there were fewer applications, or more licenses the point system would be more effective, but as it stands, it is more for PR.

I probably provided a very confusing explanation, but I hope it helps.

[Adam Waszak]

I have bee buying points now (4) because I thought they drew from the pool of higher points first then went on to the lower numbers until all of the tags were gone. if this is true the point system is #@!* :rant: I think everyone felt the same as I did for example this year if you had 4 or more you were guaranteed a tag unless you applies for a hunt that head fewer tags than there were people with 4 or 5 points :dizzy: That really make me mad because your odds don't really go up any more than when you apply to be part of a hunting party.

AW

[TSS Caddis]

From what I've been told there is a big pool that the drawing is conducted from. The pool consists off all entries. I will confirm this.

[mich buckmaster]

To be honest, I think that is untrue. The point system for elk will be how many times your name will be put into the pool, but for bear the ones with points will have first dibs before someone with fewer points.

I think boehr would be a better person to talk to about this, but if you pull up a search you will find many other threads about the subject.

[NEMichsportsman]

To be honest, I think that is untrue. The point system for elk will be how many times your name will be put into the pool, but for bear the ones with points will have first dibs before someone with fewer points.

My coversation with a DNR Official when the system came into existence indicated that this is the case. I don't believe there has been any change.

[stevebrandle]

TSS,

This is smelling more and more like BS. Get some solid proof for these things WITH backup before you start tossing this out, OK?

[Big Game]

I agree with you Steve. I tend to think just the opposite is true of what caddis has posted. From those who I know of that has been drawn with tags since this PP system has started, I think it is working just fine. Each year the odds are improving as the population of bear are growing and they seem to be expanding in range. Just keep putting in for points and exercise a little patience. Everybodys time will come.

[Luv2hunteup]

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Preference Point System
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Hunters receive a preference point each year that they are unsuccessful in obtaining a harvest tag.

Applicants may apply for a harvest tag or elect to bank a preference point by applying and forgoing the license selection process; only one point will be awarded in a given year.

It is illegal to apply for a license while under a hunting license revocation.

Each year, licenses for a particular hunting period and unit will be issued to applicants with the most points. If there are not enough licenses available for all persons with the same number of points, a random drawing will be held to distribute the remaining licenses. See "Last Year's Drawing Results" for percentages of successful applicants by unit, hunting period, and number of points.


http://www.michigan.gov/dnr/0,1607,7-153-10363_10856_10890-25983--,00.html

[mich buckmaster]

Yeah, I thought that is how it went. At least I hope that is how it goes for my sake!!! :lol:

[TSS Caddis]

Here is the clarification that I just received. For those of you that think I'm full of BS, let me reassure you that the person I am talking to knows more about it than anyone since they are 'intimately' involved in the various drawings for the state. Note that at the end, it is mentioned that this person who had told me how it worked for bear now says they "don't know" how it works for bear, but assume it would work the same as elk will. Either way, if you think I'm full of BS then fine, but I'm just replaying what was told to me by someone that is as close to this as you can get to drawings in Michigan. Don't shoot the messenger.

Quote:
Everyone is thrown in together. The applications are actually processed in record order, - purchase processed first, drawing processed first I think (I will verify that if you would like). I know in elk, as each application is processed, a random number is calculated against the weighted value of the number of applications. In the case of points, each application still has a weight of 1 - it's applications that are used not overall points to determine the weighted value. If elk goes with points the agreed method was that if the application has 3 tries, it will 'roll the dice' for the applicant 3 times and regardless if he fails or wins, he is removed from the pool. If he wins, the weighted value is recalculated against the remaining opportunities. A random number is calculated and based on it's value in relation to the weighted value a person wins or loses. Because of the recalculation of the weighted value every 'toss of the dice', the chance of winning is pretty stable; the values were verified with statisticians when the method was first devised, and had legal documentation submitted regarding this. If I remember right, those who are drawn last actually had a tad higher chance of winning, but it was negligible. It may be because the applications are used, not points that if a person has multiple points and buys early, they might have a tad bit of an advantage; if you had 1 chance in 10,000, now you would have 3 chances in 10,000. But it really randomly depends on when your purchase comes in vs. those others and then who before you wins. The losers, remain losers. Once your out of the pool, your chance doesn't get pulled back in.

I don't know how bear uses the points, but it's probably similar. We want it very clear what the chances are and what the points will mean and may make some modifications after pursuing the legal side of it all.

[Liver and Onions]

TSS,
The proposed elk drawing and the bear drawing are not anything alike. Your friend was mistaken to think that they were. There was a lot of info about this a few months ago. For someone inside the system it is surprising that they never heard/read about this. I think most of us would have assumed, like you, that a person on the inside would have reliable information.

L & O

[mich buckmaster]

What you quoted is for elk, NOT BEAR!! They were wrong to think they were the same. This is in the BEAR FORUM!!

We want to put out facts, not hear say from a undisclosed person.

[TSS Caddis]

MB, have you read any of this thread? It doesn't appear so.

[mich buckmaster]

"Turns out the point system does not help quite as much as we think. Again this is comming from someone that is quite intimate with the drawing process and the numbers involved."



Yes I have read the whole thing, even again, and the guy who you started the thread about, was first stated that he was talking about bear hunting, not ELK. They are totally different in the way they are going to be drawn, so why was he thinking this, if he is SO intimate?

[TSS Caddis]

Please re-read, I stated that I would get clarification and then later posted the quote from an email that I received back. In the quote it refers to elk and then at the bottom, this person states that they think Bear works the same way. I have since again, asked that they confirm this information.

I don't care either way. Whether this person is right or mistaken with their assumption means nothing to me.

[hypox]

Well, this person is WRONG!
Just wait till the drawings this year and see how many points people had that got drawn. We went thru this last year and for all the early permits and all the areas that don't have very many to start with all those people had at least 2 and mosly 3 points or more.

[vancreek]

this is a pretty confuseing post,maybe the fact that red oak is longer to draw on than some other bmu adds to the confusion,seems like to draw for red oak you need around 4 pp while if you choose to apply for some of the late season up hunts you may draw every year or two,i you really want a tag you can apply where their is a high harvest quota with lower appliciants.

[NEMichsportsman]

Lets not flame TSS too badly:bash: he is just reporting something that he heard, not making a statement of fact...these forums are for discussion. The facts quite often come out through discussion.

The DNR gives just enough information to make the reality confusing, if they showed how many points it took the applicants to accrue for a permit, the whole thing would be clear to us. I am 100% sure that TSS's acquaintance might have been knowledgeable about the Elk Hunt, but am equally sure they don't know anything about the Bear Drawing.

Slightly off topic but I think that they should additionally refine the Elk Drawing to be once in a Lifetime....one of my friends father in law has been picked twice, which seems a bit wrong, not unfair as everybody had the same mathematical odds at the time....but wrong:rant:

[boehr]

Caddis, I don't think you are full of BS but I will say your friend is full of it. Unfortunately that is how sportspersons get totally untrue information so much of the time because of one bad story being told to three other people then those three telling three each themselves and so on, and on, and on.

The first mistake you made is stating something somebody tells you and that person wants to remain confidential. Tell us all who this person is and let them own up to what they say.

[mich buckmaster]

"The first mistake you made is stating something somebody tells you"

This is all I am trying to say!! We are sportsman that post questions, ideas, and learn from one another. I would hate for a yougster to read this post and get discouraged. Thats all, not trying to break your balls to much TSS. :lol:

[Ultimag_3.5]

If I am not mistaken the Points move you up the list. I agree with the BS though. :bash: