Walleye info--why the slump this year

[WALLEYE MIKE]

I sent an e-mail to one of our DNR biologist asking a few questions on this years walleye slump. I will share this info here. I had asked a few questions and they are answered in the following.


Most of the walleye caught in the St. Clair system are migrants from Lake Erie spawning locations. The estimated abundance of Lake Erie walleye in recent years has been: 2005 - 64.7 million, 2006 - 44.0 million, 2007 - 33.6 million, and 2008 - 22.6 million. So for 2008, there are about 33% fewer walleye in the system than in 2007, and about 50% fewer than just two years ago. For 2008, 14 million of the 22.6 million walleye are from the 2003 year class (age 5 this year). So there are not very many young or small walleye in the system. The implications of more old walleye are important. Tagging studies of Lake Erie walleye have shown that older walleye wander further from the spawning sites than younger walleye. Older walleye are also harder to catch for sport anglers (that's one of the reasons they have a chance to get old), at least partly because they spend more time in open water areas, such as Southern Lake Huron, where there isn't much fishing pressure. Older walleye also are less tolerant of warm water, so if it ever really warms up this summer, we could see fishing really get tough in the St. Clair River and Lake St. Clair, as the larger fish could migrate out into Lake Huron.

Clear water impact: Studies in various locations have documented that clear water can impact walleye fishing. With the clean water now coming out of Lake Huron as a result of the ecological shifts in that system in recent years, the water clarity in the St. Clair River (and Lake St. Clair) has increased noticeably. We've also had a dry spring with little runoff, so there hasn't been much muddy water added to help cloud things up. As a result, I would expect that walleye fishing would be best on cloudy days, or early and late on sunny days, and also in the deeper areas of the St. Clair system.

Forecast for 2009 and 2010 is not rosy. We expect that walleye abundance in 2009 will hold steady at about 22 million fish. Unless we have a good hatch this spring, I don't expect things will improve much for 2010.

I totaled up the Lake Erie walleye harvests for 2005, 2006, and 2007 (the 3 years since the 2003 year-class entered the fishery). For those 3 years combined, the total estimated harvest was 14.2 million walleye. The commercial harvest was 8.6 million walleye (60% of the total), and the sport harvest was 5.6 million walleye (40%) of the total. So yes the commercial harvest is a large part of the equation. Also worth remembering that the sport harvest estimates do not include the Detroit River, Lake St. Clair, and the St. Clair River because we don't collect creel survey data on these waters annually, and also because those waters are not included in the annual harvest quota allocation process for Lake Erie walleye. Also note that the commercial harvest totals don't include the Ontario commercial harvest in the southern portion of Lake Huron, even though that fishery is largely based on walleye migrating from Lake Erie into Southern Lake Huron. Again, this is because Lake Huron waters are not included in the annual harvest quota allocation process for Lake Erie walleye.

Now remember that the estimated population of harvestable size walleye in the system was 64.7 million at the start of 2005 and 22.6 million at the start of 2008, so the population declined 42.1 million walleye. The combined harvest (sport and commercial) accounted for 14.2 million of those fish. This means that fishing mortality accounted for only 33% of the total mortality during this time period. In other words, for every walleye harvested by a gill net or fishing hook, 2 walleye died from other sources of mortality (old age, disease, predation, catch-and-release delayed mortality, etc.).

As for this years likelihood for producing a strong year-class: We've had some good conditions (cold winter and cold spring), but we've also had some poor conditions (dry April and May with little runoff, and lots of wind on the lake). I won't even try to guess what kind of production we'll see. Survey work in August will tell the tale.

[4seasrob]

Good post Mike. I was really looking forward to this season but with these facts in hand it makes we kind of sad. Let's hope we had a very good hatch this spring and we will have better times to come.

[bigrackmack]

Thanks for posting.....interesting......and also answers some questions...Mack

[DE82]

Thank you for the info Mike. I had feared this would be a worst walleye season than last year :( Sadly, it looks like that just might be the case. - Bryon

[PencilPlugger]

Good to know. Thanks.

[sfw1960]

Good post Mike , but on the West Side we don't have the walleye population you guys have , instead I read:

DNR will only take so many eggs (half the usual take) and only plant rivers & connected waters to the Grt. Lks. to prevent the spread of VHSv and out of the other corner of the collective mouth I read "IF so much as ONE fish in the brood stock take is infected" they will SCRAP the whole egg take project for the year..........

Somehow it smells SLIGHTLY of double talk.......
They plant half the fish and DON'T hike the lic. fees we are so willing to pay for a robust stocking program......
Yet the fish are to be tested , and still they are unfit for planting inland even IF they pass the silly tests....
:sad: :dizzy: :rant:

I wish I lived on that side sometimes!!!
:gaga:

[Due51]

Most of the walleye caught in the St. Clair system are migrants from Lake Erie spawning locations

Also worth remembering that the sport harvest estimates do not include the Detroit River, Lake St. Clair, and the St. Clair River because we don't collect creel survey data on these waters annually, and also because those waters are not included in the annual harvest quota allocation process for Lake Erie walleye.

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee yet, but if most of the walleye in the SC system are from Lake Erie, yet the sport fish caught in the DR, LSC, and SCR are NOT counted in the survey......how can the survery/estimates be even CLOSE to accurate?

[alex-v]

.... but if most of the walleye in the SC system are from Lake Erie, yet the sport fish caught in the DR, LSC, and SCR are NOT counted in the survey......how can the survery/estimates be even CLOSE to accurate?
If you want the fish to be counted as part of the Lake Erie system then it will require that Ontario and Ohio get on-board with Michigan and all agree to including the river system into the quota numbers.

The quotas for commercial harvest do take into consideration the numbers that are supposed to have been harvested by sportsmen and all three, Michigan, Ontario, and Ohio are involved in the numbers.

[shametamer]

this sounds serious, perhaps walleye mike and slick fishing's limit should be reduced to 2 a day!:mischeif: thanks for the info mike....p.s. the average size being a little larger makes for good size fillets...are they noticing 18 to 21 inch average fish in st clair(lake and river),like we are in the detroit river and erie?

[eyecatcher]

If you want the fish to be counted as part of the Lake Erie system then it will require that Ontario and Ohio get on-board with Michigan and all agree to including the river system into the quota numbers.

The quotas for commercial harvest do take into consideration the numbers that are supposed to have been harvested by sportsmen and all three, Michigan, Ontario, and Ohio are involved in the numbers.

It seems likem they are saying this is a guess because we leave out a number of factors. they dont even consider the canadian spring netting on the thames and which ever other rivers they are allowed.

[riverrat777]

well my fellow fishermen and women i guess thats why they call it fishing and not catching..Still fun to be out there Not getting limits everyday will get some of the yahoo,s off the water..Thanks for the post walleye mike.

[Old Blue]

Thanks for the info. It seems to make sense. Good luck fishing.

[Get_Outside]

Not sure if I feel better or worse after reading that! :lol:

[Slick fishing]

this sounds serious, perhaps walleye mike and slick fishing's limit should be reduced to 2 a day!

You dont have to worry it has:mad::evil:..Cya Slick

[Topshelf]

well my fellow fishermen and women i guess thats why they call it fishing and not catching..Still fun to be out there Not getting limits everyday will get some of the yahoo,s off the water..Thanks for the post walleye mike.

Great Post Mike

you to Riverrat. I could rant all day long about the Yahoos......:rant:

[Bogey]

I buy it. When the fishing started out slow this year I wondered if the bigger fish of the '03 class would have different habits then they did when they were younger. Not only are there less of them, they are also seasoned veterans. Plus, they may require different conditions than they did when they were younger, i.e. water temp, kind and amount of food etc.

The fact is though that the last 2 years have been so good that it has fooled a lot people into thinking that they were really good fishermen! Myself included! Not only were limits the norm, but we started adding time limits! Now that things have slowed people are really starting to doubt everything. The fishery is still very good. You may just have try different things like location, technique, avoiding the crowd, etc.. I have noticed that the boats out there are like sheep. Everybody follows everybody and fish the same areas that are historically productive. It may be time to wander from the flock and try new areas.

Now, here is my question. If the majority of our fish come from Lake Erie, then why do the fish "show up" mid river in Algonac first? If they migrate from the DR then wouldn't Lake St. Clair or the mouth/end of the channels be better early? I know you can get a few by Deckers early, but most of the first few miles of the channels are overlooked or lightly fished. It's like the fish just appear in Algonac. There is a whole migration that takes place leading to Algonac that we may be overlooking.

Any how, the fishing is still pretty good. I think we have lost sight of what is really important out there and that is to enjoy the time spent outdoors even if we aren't breaking any limit time records!

[WALLEYE MIKE]

I buy it. When the fishing started out slow this year I wondered if the bigger fish of the '03 class would have different habits then they did when they were younger. Not only are there less of them, they are also seasoned veterans. Plus, they may require different conditions than they did when they were younger, i.e. water temp, kind and amount of food etc.

The fact is though that the last 2 years have been so good that it has fooled a lot people into thinking that they were really good fishermen! Myself included! Not only were limits the norm, but we started adding time limits! Now that things have slowed people are really starting to doubt everything. The fishery is still very good. You may just have try different things like location, technique, avoiding the crowd, etc.. I have noticed that the boats out there are like sheep. Everybody follows everybody and fish the same areas that are historically productive. It may be time to wander from the flock and try new areas.

Now, here is my question. If the majority of our fish come from Lake Erie, then why do the fish "show up" mid river in Algonac first? If they migrate from the DR then wouldn't Lake St. Clair or the mouth/end of the channels be better early? I know you can get a few by Deckers early, but most of the first few miles of the channels are overlooked or lightly fished. It's like the fish just appear in Algonac. There is a whole migration that takes place leading to Algonac that we may be overlooking.

Any how, the fishing is still pretty good. I think we have lost sight of what is really important out there and that is to enjoy the time spent outdoors even if we aren't breaking any limit time records!

Those are probably the ones from Lk. Huron.

[KEITH207]

[quote=Bogey;2142789]Now, here is my question. If the majority of our fish come from Lake Erie, then why do the fish "show up" mid river in Algonac first? If they migrate from the DR then wouldn't Lake St. Clair or the mouth/end of the channels be better early? I know you can get a few by Deckers early, but most of the first few miles of the channels are overlooked or lightly fished. It's like the fish just appear in Algonac. There is a whole migration that takes place leading to Algonac that we may be overlooking.quote]

When the DNR was at the LSCWA meeting a few years ago, they explained that there are several migrations taking place in our river system.

The BIG one from Lake Erie into the Detroit River is actually 3 separate migrations. One group is from the open water of Lake Erie, another is from the north shore reefs of Erie, and the smallest is from the Huron River area. All these fish tend to spawn in the Detroit River.

Another migration group is the Thames River spawners. This group comes from Lake St Clair, St Clair River and as far away as Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay.

Most of the fish we see in the St Clair River are the Huron/Saginaw Bay walleye.

My opinion of why this year’s fishery is not as good as the last few years is mostly a combination of a cold windy spring, lots of snow runoff resulting in muddy water, and an abundance of bait fish in the system.

All these silver bass and smallmouth in the river are eating something.

[Bogey]

I've heard that we get fish from both Huron and Erie. But why does Algonac take off first and spread from there? It seems it starts in Algonac then Marine City, Marysville and the bridge. It also goes down river from Algonac until it reaches the lake. Geogarphically it seems like Algonac should be last?

Also, Erie had the big hatch in '03 and it seems like we benefited (and still are) from that the most. In '05 we had tons of 13" fish here in Algonac. Saginaw Bay had a big hatch in '03 and a couple since then and we haven't really seen those fish here. I know this winter they caught a ton of sublegal fish again in the Saginaw River and we really haven't seen the affects of that here. Seems like most of our fish come from Erie?

[Frogman]

"Most of the fish we see in the St Clair River are the Huron/Saginaw Bay walleye."

Just a question, when did walleye start running downriver to spawn?
I don't see how this fits into the nature of the fish...I assume that we are all talking about the spring run here.

Frogman

[PencilPlugger]

A couple of years ago I caught a tagged walleye in the SCR that was released from the Thames a year earlier.

[treeman]

Thanks for the post Mike and thanks to Mike Thomas as well. Very good information and in line with some of the research I have done lately. Though catch rates are down for me some this year, it is good to have some time actually fishing and not just catching. Gives me a little more time on the water. Walleyes aside, the tin navy sails next week. Time to shift gears and pull out the big guns.

[Down Lowe]

sounds to me like there are 22.6 million fish swimming around waiting to be caught - let's go get em

Mike - thanks for asking the questions

DNR person - thanks for a good honest answer

[WALLEYE MIKE]

Alittle more info on this subject in the Michigan Sporstman June 2008 edition.

Pretty much saying the same thing. 2004 spawn was poor, 2005 was better (4x), and the 2006 spawn was only 1/3 of 2004 (very poor)


Good article to go along with this info.

[KEITH207]

"Most of the fish we see in the St Clair River are the Huron/Saginaw Bay walleye."

Just a question, when did walleye start running downriver to spawn?
I don't see how this fits into the nature of the fish...I assume that we are all talking about the spring run here.

Frogman


These fish are going through the St Clair River and the lake to get to the Thames River, they then go upstream to spawn.

[Frogman]

Well, I didn't think of that. Thanks for explaining it to me. Boy, that Thames River must offer them something special for them to make that trip with the Saginaw River right there in their backyard.

Frogman

[WALLEYE MIKE]

Well, I didn't think of that. Thanks for explaining it to me. Boy, that Thames River must offer them something special for them to make that trip with the Saginaw River right there in their backyard.

Frogman

They do travel a long way sometimes. The DNR has tagged some and they were caught from as far away as Eastern Lk. Erie (new york) and up into Lk. Huron. These were tagged in Monroe.

[MiketheElder]

I recall reading about a walleye caught and released in Lake Erie, then being caught a month later in Lake Michigan.

Couple of years ago.