Will this El Nino ever go away?

[jamieking989]

From the forcasts I saw the expect this el nino weather patern to be here for the years to come, I hope they are wrong this no ice SUCKS!!!!!

Jamie

[William H Bonney]

Farmers Almanac said this winter would be colder than normal, but there was a slight chance that El Nino could swing our way and blow all the cold weather outta MI.

On a side note,, that I thought was VERY strange this year. Did anyone else notice all the south and east winds during the last part of regular bow season and all during the firearm deer season??:confused: My stand and my dads are both good east and south wind stands,, which is not the norm and even my dad gotta deer this year,, which is even stranger.:lol: Makes me wonder if all those south and east winds earlier are having anything to do with this.:16suspect

[walleyeman2006]

from what ive read on it ...its a cycle that never ends just seems to be keeping us warmer for longer periods maybe when it cycles back we will have colder for a longer period too...

[Blaketrout]

And last year wasn't even technically an El Nino year.

So far, 2000,2002,2006, and more than likely 2007 (http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=h&ext=swt&type=N&hr=00 check out the water temps offshore) have been bad ice years. This is unbelievable. If someone would have told me 20 years ago that 4 out of 10 winters there would be no ice I would have laughed at them. A lot of spots that used to be normal fishing grounds in outer Saginaw Bay are now off limits even during cold winters like 2005. I got a feeling when I have grandkids they would be amazed that the lakes even froze over. :(

[stinger63]

Farmers Almanac said this winter would be colder than normal, but there was a slight chance that El Nino could swing our way and blow all the cold weather outta MI.

On a side note,, that I thought was VERY strange this year. Did anyone else notice all the south and east winds during the last part of regular bow season and all during the firearm deer season??:confused: My stand and my dads are both good east and south wind stands,, which is not the norm and even my dad gotta deer this year,, which is even stranger.:lol: Makes me wonder if all those south and east winds earlier are having anything to do with this.:16suspect

The wind patterns have definately changed.We get more Se winds during the winter than we ever used along with sw winds.It has to do with the pacific weather fronts that we keep getting.Since the polar and artic air is locked up north we dont get the cold fronts that bring Northerlys and the typical artic weather we get.
If the pattern changes though we`ll have more ice than what any of us want.The longer the artic air stays bottled to the north the colder it will be if it does move southward depending if it comes down in one big mass or smaller pushes.From what i have been hearing this current elnino pattern isnt supposed to change until early spring.

[jamieking989]

Well in 2005 the bay froze all the way across and we were able to go out up to 26 miles. Last year was terrible as is this year so far. I just hope it starts to freeze again, I'm going nuts. I may have to move!!

Jamie

[Buddwiser]

Can you say 'Globa Warming"? Never paid much attention to the dire warnings before. Maybe they were right after all but what can be done about it. Even if the U.S. does all that it can, many of the 3rd world countries continue to pollute the atmosphere more than we do and because of economics, probably will continue to do so.

[Buddwiser]

My bad on the Globa...shoulda been Global but I think you knew what I meant.

[WALLEYE MIKE]

Tom Skilling of WGN said ( last week) the el nino was starting to weaken.

[jamieking989]

I hate el nino!!

[Southend517]

I hope so,

[LlipRipper]

Quote: The 2007 Farmers’ Almanac, released August 28, 2006, predicts the frigid temperatures, as much as 20 degrees below seasonal norms (and nearly 40 degrees colder than last winter), for Montana, the Dakotas and parts of Wyoming. For the Gulf Coast up through New England, unseasonably cold, or “shivery,” conditions are expected.

Snow, and lots of it, is also forecast for the nation’s midsection, parts of New England, and the mountains of the Pacific Northwest. “The Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley may be the only area spared the extreme cold,” reveals Sandi Duncan, Philom., Managing Editor, “but this is not to say this area won’t be without its cold spells and significant snowfalls.”

How's that grab yer power auger, eh?

[kdogger]

Looking well beyond the 7-day forecast...into the first half of the
month of January 2007...latest GFS favors a continued at or above
normal temperatures. As mentioned yesterday...the North Atlantic
oscillation new forecast favors a continued at or above zero into the
New Year and with a persistent energetic zonal Pacific jet...still
do not see any Arctic intrusions for the Great Lakes.

[garyb]

Can you say 'Globa Warming"? Never paid much attention to the dire warnings before. Maybe they were right after all but what can be done about it. Even if the U.S. does all that it can, many of the 3rd world countries continue to pollute the atmosphere more than we do and because of economics, probably will continue to do so....i am sorry to say but the usa fefuses to join europe on cutting emmissions into the atmoshere,bush says it would hurt our economy, fact....i am now thinking should i sell all my ice fishing tackle before it gets way outta hand with this nice weather !

[Frozenfish]

remember the earthquakes that caused the tsunami? Didn't ya'll know that it knocked the Earth's axis off a bit. Now we will always have warm winters....:rolleyes: :yikes: :chillin:

[javelin]

remember the earthquakes that caused the tsunami? Didn't ya'll know that it knocked the Earth's axis off a bit. Now we will always have warm winters....:rolleyes: :yikes: :chillin:


That's just retarded!!!....................................... .............or is it?

This weather sucks no matter what the explaination.

There is something FISHY going on here :fish:

[chuckinduck]

I don't buy into global warming necessarily. Sure its getting warmer, but history has shown that the world has warmed and froze before. Most likely it'll do so again, it just sucks were in the warm part of the cycle.

[DonP]

This just happens to be for South Haven, Michigan.

Ummm... I think the ice is on "hold" for now!! :rolleyes:


Date.....Forecast................................. ......Temperatures
Dec 26..Rather cloudy and windy.............Low: 29 °F....High: 39 °F
Dec 27..Periods of clouds and sunshine.....Low: 30 °F....High: 38 °F
Dec 28..Intervals of clouds and sun..........Low: 32 °F....High: 44 °F
Dec 29..Mostly cloudy...........................Low: 34 °F....High: 45 °F
Dec 30..A couple of showers possible.......Low: 34 °F....High: 46 °F
Dec 31..Cloudy, flurries; breezy...............Low: 30 °F....High: 42 °F
Jan 1....Mostly cloudy with flurries...........Low: 26 °F....High: 37 °F
Jan 2....Mostly cloudy...........................Low: 21 °F....High: 37 °F
Jan 3....Several hours of sunshine...........Low: 29 °F....High: 31 °F
Jan 4....Considerable cloudiness..............Low: 31 °F....High: 40 °F
Jan 5....Overcast with rain possible.........Low: 32 °F....High: 43 °F
Jan 6....Overcast with a chance of rain....Low: 29 °F....High: 44 °F
Jan 7....Partly sunny.............................Low: 32 °F....High: 42 °F
Jan 8....Partly sunny.............................Low: 32 °F....High: 43 °F
Jan 9....Cloudy....................................Low : 27 °F....High: 44 °F

[Frozenfish]

I'm telling ya, really, it was the earthquake!!! :SHOCKED: :yikes: :one_eye: :idea:

http://www.unexplainable.net/artman/publish/Information_and_Theories_
8/Earth_s_axis_displacement_caused_by_Core_Changes_1 819_printer.shtml

Earth's axis displacement to result in monstrous global changes

As the core nears the mantle of Earth, the number of earthquakes, tsunamis and volcano eruptions increases
The core of our planet is directly connected with the Earth's magnetic field. Scientists noticed back in the 17th century that the field was constantly changing. The Earth's magnetic intensity has reduced by almost five percent over the recent hundred of years. The tempo implies that the field will totally disappear already in 2000. The geomagnetic field is a peculiar screen, which protects the planet from space radiation. If the screen is removed, the planet will be attacked with a strong radiation current, which will either kill all living beings on Earth or cause various mutations in the biosphere. http://www.unexplainable.net/brainbox/uploads/1/axis.jpg
There is another danger too. It was noticed in 1829 that the Earth's inner core was displaced by 252 kilometers against the axis towards the Pacific Ocean. The displacement had increased to 451 kilometers by 1965. If the core continues moving towards the Earth's surface, the planet will simply turn over itself in space someday.
The displacement of the Earth's axis occurred in ancient times too. The evidence of it can be found in both numerous historical sources and modern scientific researches. Archaeologists have recently uncovered a sundial in Egypt, which could be used only in a country located in latitude 15, although Egypt is situated on latitude 25-30. Astronomical tables contain the information, which says that Babylon used to be situated a little bit far to the north in comparison with up-to-date ruins of the city.
One of the recent displacements of the Earth's axis occurred during the Flood. Legends about the Flood can be found with almost every nation of the world: the descriptions of the disaster are almost identical everywhere. The Bible says that the Apocalypse would start with the voice of the Lord that every human being will hear. Egyptians used to say that the Great Sphinx was the father of horror and fear. One of Egyptian legends says that the whole world will shudder, when the Sphinx starts roaring with laughter. All those stories describe the sound that the Earth's core produces when it touches the mantle. The sound can be heard in various parts of the world from time to time; some nations even have specific terms for it.
As the core nears the mantle of Earth, the number of earthquakes, tsunamis and volcano eruptions increases, especially in the areas of the Pacific and Indian oceans, adjacent to the crust break. A displacement of the earth's axis will inevitably result in climate changes. The eruption of volcanic gases and ashes will darken the atmosphere and reduce the power of the solar energy. A contact between the earth's core and mantle will lead to catastrophic consequences on the surface of the planet - mammoth earthquakes and tsunamis.
The global danger to life on the blue planet is quite real. Needless to mention that the humanity is absolutely unable to prevent it. Aleksei Nikolayev, a specialist for earthquakes from the Russian Academy of Sciences, says that the underground life of the planet conceals a lot of mysteries indeed. "There is no need to panic, though. The parameters of the Earth's rotation have already changed before. The recent tsunami in Southeast Asia wobbled the earth's axis and increased the speed of the planet's rotation. The day became three microseconds shorter. The speed of the planet's rotation is not permanent: there are seasonal and even daily variations, which are connected with underground processes, air movement and sea currents. The axis wobbles for about a meter every month, but it does not lead to any tremendous and horrible global changes. Alterations of the planet's magnetic field are not a reason to panic either: it is a natural dynamic process. There will be no need to worry for four billion years, until the Sun runs out of its power," the specialist believes.



That's just retarded!!!....................................... .............or is it?

This weather sucks no matter what the explaination.

There is something FISHY going on here :fish:

[jamieking989]

I want ICE!! I want ICE!!

[WALLEYE MIKE]

According to WGN, it will be cold next Monday. They forcast a high of 30 and low of 16. We'll see.

[gilly]

I tell ya not much of a Christmas without snow. Seems like spring with all the dam rain. As far as a pattern let's hope not. Remember how bad the hurricane season was last year in Florida and they said it is a pattern which lasts for several bad years as it has done so throughout history. They said this season was going to be even worse than last. Well this season was squat with a few small tropical storms. Let's hope this no ice bs will do the same and get back to normal quick. I had planned on pulling the trigger on a new Guide shanty this year but with this darn weather I am starting to think otherwise.

[WALLEYE MIKE]

According to WGN, it will be cold next Monday. They forcast a high of 30 and low of 16. We'll see.

Still today they say cold next Mon and Tues and continuing past that. Lets hope they're on the money.

[ScavengerMan]

Before you guys complain too much don't forget to take out your BOAT. I've had two outstanding perch outings this holiday season and there wasn't a single other fisherman around. Concentrate on some of the same first ice spots (except a little deeper water) near any water inflow coming into the Bay. Bait fish are there, the perch are there and you might just catch some walleye by surprise. 6-8 feet of water with minnows on the bottom, tight to a weed bed for me...... ;)

[jamieking989]

I'm getting my boat back out this weekend. Shows high winds friday so I'm hoping it calms down on saturday or sunday so I can get my 14 ft aluminum out a little ways.

Jamie

[Chuck1]

Here is a good link for you guys, you can loop it,and see what the arctic air is doing,and how the High pressure over both oceans is keeping that cold bottled up. The plus side is that cold air up there is building strength. When it does let loose it ought to be brutal (crosses fingers)

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/index.html

[Ralph Smith]

well they can't blame a long hard winter on the alewives decline next year. This might be just what we needed. Not good for us ice hounds now, but might be great for some rebounding baitfish populations for salmon ;)

[Southend517]

shiver on the River will probably be in boats again.

[Big_P]

Hey guys I got a message from El Nino today!!! Here it is.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibo40FQjG40

[WALLEYE MIKE]

Still today they say cold next Mon and Tues and continuing past that. Lets hope they're on the money.

They changed the forcast. Colder on Tues. but warming back into the 40' for Wedn. and Thur.


Weather channel 15 day forcast --getting colder around the 13th.

[Chuck1]

The Unisys model is showing some cold air popping down around 10 days out. I don't knwo about you guys but I have not given up hope yet......Please freeze Saginaw Bay......

[slim Jim]

Have mums trying to grow along with couple other plants in the yard . Hope we have ice soon, but not a fast cool down.

Southend517 shiver on the River will probably be in boats again.

With all the rain and how high the water has been, I agree with you.

[jeremy L]

We need blocking near Greenland. What i mean by this is we need a slow moving or stalled out low pressue system to be in place near greenland. What this does is Back up all other systems, creating a logjam effect. What that would mean for around here is a NW flow weather pattern on the backside of the low, bring Cold, dry air in from canada.

Right now, the global weather pattern is very fast and progressive, meaning systems come in and out within a day or two and the cold snaps behind them last only that long.

Speaking off cold snaps, the reason there hasn't been one recently is because of the screaming Pacific Jetstream. This brings in huge low pressue systems into and near the gulf of Alaska. When this happens, SW winds ahead of this low pump in air that was out over the pacific ocean into NW canada. This air is cool, but certainly not cold in the grand idea of things. Because there is "mild" pacific air in canada, we get that same air when cold fronts come through and winds turn NW. When the pacific jet calms down and the storm systems start to track father south, we will see arctic air.

Your not going to like this, but the pattern looks to stay the same through about mid Jan with a change in that timeframe. Now, this may sound like a final blow to good ice, but remember: When it turns cold, its going to get REALLY cold. The airmass will be at its peak, lowest, temps for the winter. This won't be a slow ice making time with daytime highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, it will be bitter cold with subfreezing temps all day. A week of that and you will have 3-4 inches on most sheltered areas and two weeks gives you around 6. If the pattern changes happens by mid month, we could be looking at most of Feb and maybe into march for good ice, as the pattern looks to stay cold after we finally get to it.

[jamieking989]

The 15 day forecast finally has temps droping into the 20's for highs in 2 weeks.


Jamie

[Southend517]

I feel worst then the snow removal guys, I need ice

[Bassbug]

a warm, wet blanket, but these last couple of warm winters have me worried.

After 2004 and 2005's abundant ice, I'm certain that global warming is not occurring, but my wife convinced me to rent "An Inconvenient Truth," and it was frightening to see how much glaciers and ice packs had been reduced in the last 40 years.

Kinda' wish my brother and I had bought hatchets instead of a brand-new-ice-destroying-three-bladed-10-fargin'-inches, Jiffy Stealth auger (both the hatchets and auger can cut through zero inches of ice in one second or less, but it takes longer to start the auger!!!:( :( )!!!

We need ice soon -- I shouldn't be watching movies during ice fishing season!




http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/index.html

[JDHUNTER]

The 15 day forecast finally has temps droping into the 20's for highs in 2 weeks.


Jamie

I seen that a few days ago, but now it shows temps above freezing ! No sign of colder temps in the 15 day forecast. Somethings gotta give soon.

[jeremy L]

By this weekend, winter returns.

[Ed Michrina]

Cold weather is great but the days are getting longer:(

[ih772]

By this weekend, winter returns.

Man I hope it returns!