Trophy Buck Success Rates by State

[November Sunrise]

This thread is about the difference in hunter success rates for “trophy bucks” in other states, as compared to MI. This thread is not about the reasons why there are differences. If you want to discuss why Ohio, for example, has a much higher trophy buck success rate per hunter than MI, please start a new thread.

What prompted this was the legitimate question posed recently on another thread about whether the trophy buck hunting in other states is really that much better than in MI.

John & Chris Eberhart address this question in their books. They break down P&Y entries by # of archery licenses sold in a state. The top 10 for the year 2001 are:

1) Iowa – 1 out of every 235 hunters with a P&Y entry
2) Kansas – 1 out of every 255
3) Nebraska – 1 out of every 408
4) Illinois – 1 out of every 418
5) South Dakota – 1 out of every 429
6) Wisconsin – 1 out of every 719
7) North Dakota – 1 out of every 944
8) Minnesota – 1 out of every 1125
9) Oklahoma – 1 out of every 1210
10) Indiana – 1 out of every 1264

The bottom 7 are:

1) South Carolina – 1 out of 40,000
2) Florida – 1 out of 27878
3) New Hampshire – 1 out of 22500
4) Maine – 1 out of 15852
5) Alabama – 1 out of 13920
6) Tennessee – 1 out of 12857
7) Michigan – 1 out of 8507

The Eberharts also assembled a chart for 1998, with very similar breakdowns.

Here’s another example that I assembled this past fall, comparing MI to OH in 2004. In 2004 there were 110 hunters in MI that bagged a deer over 140 inches. This is approximately one out of every 6,482 hunters (713,000 deer hunters). By comparison, there were 715 hunters in OH that bagged a deer over 140 inches. This is one out of every 664 hunters (475,000 deer hunters).

I believe the harvest estimate is that there were around 230,000 bucks taken in MI, this means that one out of every 2,090 bucks in MI scored over 140. By comparison, the number of antlered bucks taken in OH was 85,000, which means that one out of every 119 scored over 140.

Finally, there’s NO REASON to assume that hunters in MI are any more or less likely to enter a buck in the record books. In other words, it’s not valid to use the tried and true excuse of “I know a lot guys in MI who never enter their bucks in CBM”. The same thing is true of hunters in all states, some of them simply don’t enter their bucks. Thus the comparisons from one state to the next in terms of record book entries are extremely valid.

[NorthJeff]

Why would anyone want to leave MI to hunt and spend money?:)

[riverman]

It would be nice to see those states broke down by population per state, deer tags sold per state, and puplic land available by state.

[Dawg]

I wonder if they complain this much in South Carolina?

[Ed Spin04]

Thanks Novenber Sunrise. I had an article plus the bio harvest data from DMU 118 published in MUCC's Outdoor mag a couple years ago and asked the Editor, Dennis Knickbocker, "What was the readers response to the article and data"?

Dennis said "Ed, there wasn't any response not one". I said that this was contentious issue, how could that be. Dennis said "How can you argue with facts"?

Thanks again Sunrise, and yes, how can anyone argue with facts?

FL what is that famous saying that Dr Kroll gives us to keep us from straying off course?

[username]

Couldnt one break it down even further as in only the UP. or southern Mich.Then take those numbers and I am sure they would move up on the list. It all depends on where you hunt I guess. And how many of the hunters are actually into hunting and put the time in, not some 3 or 5 day a year hunter who dumps bait at the end of skid road a few days before season, you could factor them out. What would be a guess as to how many put time in? 20% of hunters? more, less?

[NorthJeff]

It would be the same for every state though wouldn't it? I agree though, we have a huge percentage of hunters in the U.P. that dumps some bait, hunt for a few days, and go home. That is why I don't think the 1 buck license would do anything because again, most of these guys on public land are here for a few days, and go home...they are happy to shoot anything with some bone.

That's a good point though, but I see in PA as well. A few guys go out and drive around, wander up a trail and back, and then you have the guys that sit out dark to dark and put their time in, but I imagine it's that way most places.

It would be interesting to see how many P&Y bucks per total buck population are harvested in these states to give an indication of age structure.

[farmlegend]

FL what is that famous saying that Dr Kroll gives us to keep us from straying off course?

I can't get it precisely, but it goes something like this:

"Many a convenient theory has been destroyed by a relentless stream of facts".

[November Sunrise]

"Many a convenient theory has been destroyed by a relentless stream of facts".

Love it!!

That phrase reminds me of another saying that I've become fond of and have been accused by some of overusing. It goes like this: "No matter how brilliant the strategy, occasionally we need to stop and assess the actual results" - author unknown.

[Setter]

It would be interesting to compare those ranking of states to a ranking of how many year and a half old deer are shot each year in those states. My guess is that most of the lowest ranked would have high percentage of yearling bucks shot each year. Let 'em go and they will grow!

[RackSmacker]

It would be interesting to compare those ranking of states to a ranking of how many year and a half old deer are shot each year in those states. My guess is that most of the lowest ranked would have high percentage of yearling bucks shot each year. Let 'em go and they will grow!

Your probobly right on the money with that one!!!

[beer and nuts]

Yup, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the amount of corn(food), soil quality(minerals), hunting pressure, land taken over by outfitters/guides and managing it for trophy deer, shorter seasons, habitat, amount of private property, the amount of land and then concentrating the deer in the draws, 1.5 year old bucks having 8-10 buck racks to begin with(from a few of the above mentioned), etc.. one buck license, lots of little things....

Look at the top 10, all agricultural states(except maybe Minnesota). I'm pretty sure not one of the states is 1/3 covered in Jackpine, scrub oaks, and evergreen, poplar(NLP), and very few are covered in cedar, evergreens and hemlock in the top North half.

[RackSmacker]

Yup, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the amount of corn(food), soil quality(minerals), hunting pressure, land taken over by outfitters/guides and managing it for trophy deer, shorter seasons, habitat, amount of private property, the amount of land and then concentrating the deer in the draws, 1.5 year old bucks having 8-10 buck racks to begin with(from a few of the above mentioned), etc.. one buck license, lots of little things....

Look at the top 10, all agricultural states(except maybe Minnesota). I'm pretty sure not one of the states is 1/3 covered in Jackpine, scrub oaks, and evergreen, poplar(NLP), and very few are covered in cedar, evergreens and hemlock in the top North half.

Well said

[Sib]

I think the stats provide a pretty good picture, but they also bring up questions when I read this. Here are a couple of them off the top of my head.

1) Is this a values difference, or a management difference? I think that's an important question because it's important to establish whether younger bucks are protected by laws, or an overall values differ between Michigan hunters and the highly ranked states. No doubt Michigan's rich hunting tradition is a doube edge sword and from the management perspective it equates to less mature bucks.

2) What percentage of those books are nonresident tags vs resident tags. This info would help establish a truer picture of the hunting values in each state. My thoughts are, and it seems to be supported by those going out of state, the average Michigan hunter going out of state would not take a 6 pt, or a small eight, afterall the reason for going is to get a trophy. So we can pretty much assume the values of those visiting the destination states. Now let's exclude them from the trophy books, this will give us a macro look at the values of the resident hunters. It would be interesting to see if any of this data is available, because I would like to see the prevailing local mentality of deer hunting. I guess what I'm asking is how much do out of state trophy hunters distort the book buck data? Perhaps not at all, perhaps it does distort the perceived hunting culture?

I'm not sure if any of the info I'd like to see is available, but imo, it would help me understand those states and their hunters better. Even if those stats are available, I still concede that it will still probably show the top states towards the tops and the lower states towards the bottom, but I wonder if it would rearrange those tops state a bit and the bottom one's might change positions. Like I said, I don't think it will drastically put any given state up or down the list, but without knowing it's hard to say.

Final thoughts are somewhat epithetical towards the DNR and being between two groups of hunters with clashing values and trying to look forward a bit. Change is on the horizon and neither group is satified with the rate of that change. One group feels it's moving too fastly and use adjectives like 'destroying', 'ruining' and the other group is dissatified with how slowly the change is taking place and you get adjectives used like, 'mismangement'...in a scenario like that you usually get very few satified customers. But I feel if you try and be as objective as possible looking at the past 25 years and then try and see where we'll be in the next 25, you have to recognize we are changing and if your pro-QDM it's changing for the better. Looking at how antlerless permits were once perceived vs todays overall perspective, the positive peer pressure in place that passing on smaller bucks creates, more people in general letting young bucks walk. Much of this didsn't exist when I first entered the deer woods in '79. Yeah, it'd be difficult to be in the DNR managing our herd.:lol:

[Whit1]

That's a thought provoking post Sib! Thanks!

[November Sunrise]

Yup, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the amount of corn(food), soil quality(minerals), hunting pressure, land taken over by outfitters/guides and managing it for trophy deer, shorter seasons, habitat, amount of private property, the amount of land and then concentrating the deer in the draws, 1.5 year old bucks having 8-10 buck racks to begin with(from a few of the above mentioned), etc.. one buck license, lots of little things....

Look at the top 10, all agricultural states(except maybe Minnesota). I'm pretty sure not one of the states is 1/3 covered in Jackpine, scrub oaks, and evergreen, poplar(NLP), and very few are covered in cedar, evergreens and hemlock in the top North half.

I began the thread with these words - This thread is not about the reasons why there are differences. If you want to discuss why Ohio, for example, has a much higher trophy buck success rate per hunter than MI, please start a new thread.

B&N, you're the one who originally posed the question on a separate thread of whether out of state hunting for trophy bucks is really better. I've provided you the answer to your question. Attempting to explain the reasons "why" dozens of states are better than MI isn't germane to this thread. As I said originally, please start a new thread if you want to discuss "why", the purpose of this thread is to simply give the facts of how trophy buck percentages compare by state.

[NorthJeff]

Actually Sib...the change has been getting much worse in the U.P. in the last 25 years..but that's another topic. You have to look no further than the CBM record books to see that.

Also, pertaining to this thread and the percentages of "book bucks" and those traveling out of state to get a "book buck". I haven't, and none of my friends have entered their bucks in books..even my friends 196" non-typical Kanses buck..we just love to hunt herds with big rubs, scrapes, fighting, grunting snort-wheezing, chasing, seeking, ripped ears, scarred backs, broken antlers, you know the stuff that gets your blood pumping and becomes addicting. Unfortunately you just have a very hard time finding that in MI....and it wasn't always that way!

[jawbreaker]

Here's a quote from a very intelligent man that went by the name of Einstien. "The significant problems we face today cannot be solved with the same level of thinking as when they were created." May not be completely correct but the jist is there..........

Jawbreaker

[One Eye]

I began the thread with these words - This thread is not about the reasons why there are differences. If you want to discuss why Ohio, for example, has a much higher trophy buck success rate per hunter than MI, please start a new thread.
To start a thread like this and not expect discussion on the why is pretty naive. If that was your intent, perhaps this should have been a sticky or, better yet, a one post, closed thread.

Thanks for sharing the stats. Too bad I can't comment any further :confused: :confused:

Dan